U.S. Presidential Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held their first negotiations on Ukrainian soil on Sunday, September 6, as part of their mission. Only a day earlier, the two held intensive closed-door talks in Moscow with Vladimir Putin that lasted more than three hours. This high-level shuttle diplomacy has resumed dialogue between the parties and created an atmosphere of cautious optimism, although behind the talk of "mutually beneficial projects" lies a choice that will determine the architecture of European security for decades to come. For Bulgaria and the Black Sea region, it is critical to distinguish tactical gain from strategic risk.

According to Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov, the dialogue in the Kremlin was "constructive, frank and useful." In addition to discussions regarding Ukraine, the parties discussed potentially large-scale economic and "mutually beneficial joint projects between Russia and America." However, analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that initial expectations in Moscow were "extremely low." In Kyiv, the focus has shifted to issues of security, air defense, and the parameters of a sustainable peace, which shows the American side's attempts to combine economic incentives with security.

The envoys arrived in Kyiv by train from Poland. The talks with Volodymyr Zelensky and his team were held in two rounds, with the second stage joined by the national security advisors of Great Britain, France, and Germany, affirming a joint international format. The results were presented optimistically: Steve Witkoff described the meeting as a "very substantive and important" conversation, and Jared Kushner emphasized the need "to create conditions for long-term, sustainable peace" and a return to the trilateral format that was interrupted about half a year ago. The American side appeared already encouraged by the progress.

During the visit, between September 5 and 7, there was an agreement not to conduct strikes on the capitals. However, Russia rejected Ukraine's broader proposal for a ceasefire along the entire front line from September 4 to 8. Zelensky stressed that the territorial issue can only be resolved at the leader level. Sources familiar with the negotiations admit that it is unlikely the war will end before winter, and current efforts are aimed at supporting Ukraine through this difficult period.

Ahead of the special envoys' arrival in Kyiv, on September 5 the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) conducted searches at the Office of the Prosecutor General, including in the offices of the Prosecutor General and his first deputy. During the operation, Serhiy Kropyva was detained on suspicion of laundering tens of millions of hryvnias and connections to fraudulent call centers. Within the Office of the Prosecutor General, there was concern that NABU detectives could gain access to materials on other ongoing proceedings. This conflict between law enforcement structures and the prevailing information environment in the heat of negotiations weaken the position of the Ukrainian side and make it more vulnerable to external pressure.

For Bulgaria and the Black Sea region, de-escalation carries specific dimensions:

  • Safe shipping and optimization of insurance costs for the Port of Burgas.
  • Predictable energy prices and reduction of energy risks.
  • Restoration of tourist flows and a return to a stable way of life.

However, there is a risk that this could be a "Pyrrhic victory." If Ukraine cedes territories, a dangerous precedent will be set. The UN Charter and the 1975 Helsinki Final Act are based on the inviolability of borders. If these norms are undermined, it will mean for small states that international law is inoperable. The regional balance in the Balkans depends on the observance of these principles, and Sofia must be particularly careful not to allow a dilution of Euro-Atlantic guarantees or revanchism.

Today's discussion on the parameters of peace reflects the complexities of the conflict. For Bulgaria, which is closely monitoring security prospects, it is vital to understand whether a future peace will be sustainable or just a temporary pause before new challenges to the sovereignty of states in the Black Sea region arise.