Pay under collective wage deals in nine eurozone countries is set to rise by an average of 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, not counting one-off payments. That is the finding of the European Central Bank's (ECB) updated indicator. For all of 2026, the rise is 2.6%.

The bank bases the indicator on collective agreements signed by mid-October, and the data runs to the end of September 2027. The ECB says the figures for coming months are not a forecast. They show only what is already written into current agreements, and they may be revised.

Without one-off payments, the increase is 2.9% for the first half of 2027 and 2.5% for the third quarter.

The bank's main measure spreads each one-off payment over 12 months to smooth the result. On that basis, the rise is 2.3% for 2026. It is 2.7% for the second half of 2026 and 2.8% for the first half of 2027. It falls to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027.

The lower figure for the first half of 2026 comes from one-off payments in the second half of 2024, which were not repeated the following year. In the second half of 2026 this effect disappears completely.

Without smoothing the one-off payments, the rise is 2.7% for all of 2026, 2.7% for the first half of 2027 and 2.4% for the third quarter. The ECB says the smoothed indicator is better for tracking changes from month to month and quarter to quarter, while the unsmoothed one is for comparing years. It adds that one-off payments play a small part in recently signed deals.

Compared with the September release, the main indicator has been revised up slightly for the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027, by about 0.1 percentage points on average.

The ECB warns that the 2027 data still covers only a small share of workers. The agreements cover 46.2% of employees in the participating countries for 2026, 31.8% for the first half of 2027 and 23.3% for the third quarter.

The indicators do not fully match the wider measure of negotiated wages in the eurozone, which is based on national data. For a fuller picture, the bank points to its September macroeconomic forecast, which says pay per employee in the eurozone will rise by 3.3% in 2026.

The next update is due on 18 December. The ECB will then add new collective agreements and extend the data to the end of next year.