Workers from outside the EU are not clearly taking jobs from Bulgarians or pushing down their pay, according to a new analysis by the Institute for Market Economics (IME).

Burgas region gets more permits than any other for 90-day, or seasonal, work by foreigners. Yet pay there is rising faster than the Bulgarian average, the institute says.

In 2025, Bulgaria issued 18,658 permits for 90-day work by non-EU citizens. Burgas region had 8,066 of them, more than half. Varna region was second with 3,022. Burgas has a sharp seasonal peak in job vacancies because of tourism. The IME says employment in the region rose in 2025 after hitting its lowest level during the pandemic.

The regional data also shows no sign of local workers being pushed out, the analysts say. The biggest falls in employment did not come in the regions where foreigners hired this way make up the largest share. The IME says there is no visible link between the number of seasonal workers in a region and how fast pay grows there. In its view, the data on pay, unemployment and employment largely disprove the claim that seasonal hiring holds down employment and wages for Bulgarians.

Foreigners work mostly in hotels and restaurants. Pay in the sector rose by nearly 110% between 2020 and 2025, one of the fastest rises of any industry, but wages there remain low.

Employers are still looking for many workers. The Employment Agency forecasts 231,000 potential hires over the next 12 months. That is about 12% fewer than the year before, but far more than the number of people seeking work.

Since mid-2021, registered unemployment has been between 4% and 6%, or about 140,000–165,000 people. In the capital, it has stayed below 2%. The IME says local workers alone struggle to meet demand, because labour demand and supply do not match by region and profession.

The number of workers from non-EU countries is growing, but their share remains small. Eurostat says that at the end of 2025 about 29,000 non-EU citizens held a residence permit for work. That is almost five times the 2020 figure. The Employment Agency issued 49,000 permits in total during the year. Of 2.9m people in work in Bulgaria, foreigners make up under 2%, even by the highest estimates.

In Blagoevgrad region, unemployment is high and demand for workers is also strong. The IME says this shows that the skills and home towns of the jobless do not fit what firms need, or that pay and conditions do not attract them. The institute says the labour shortage therefore needs different answers in different regions and industries.

The IME believes more jobless Bulgarians should start work, but the pool of available workers is not measured only by the number of unemployed and inactive people. Many young people neither work nor look for work, but a large share of them are studying. Others face health or family problems, or live where jobs are hard to find.

As the population shrinks, the labour shortage will probably grow, most of all in the industries and regions that already struggle to find people. The institute says workers from outside the EU can be part of the answer, along with bringing local people into work and training them.

The National Statistical Institute forecasts that Bulgaria's working-age population will fall from about 3.9m today to 3.1m in 2050.