OPEC Lowers Demand Outlook Through 2029: Who Loses From the Downward Revision?

In July 2025, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released a revised forecast for global oil demand through 2029, projecting slower growth compared to earlier estimates. This announcement has already sent ripples through global markets and raises questions about the future of energy investments.

Lower demand: what does it mean?

OPEC trimmed its forecast for average daily demand during 2026–2029 by about 0.7 million barrels per day, now expecting global consumption to reach 111.6 million barrels per day by 2029. The revision is attributed to slower economic growth in China, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, and energy efficiency policies in Europe and North America.

“There are no signs of a demand peak before 2030, but the growth rate is clearly moderating,” OPEC stated in its report.

Who loses?

The downward revision directly impacts:

• High-cost producers such as Algeria and Venezuela, which rely on high prices to stabilize their budgets.
• Investors in traditional oil projects who may face diminishing returns if capacity expansions outpace demand.
• Non-OPEC producers (e.g., the US, Canada), competing with OPEC for market share under increasing pressure to pivot capital toward other sectors.

Who could benefit?

The softened outlook for oil demand opens opportunities for:

• Green energy companies poised to accelerate renewable energy adoption under mounting policy pressure and shifting consumer preferences.
• Energy efficiency investors positioned to take advantage of government subsidies and technological innovation.

“This is an opportunity for strategic reallocation of capital from fossil fuels into clean technologies,” note analysts at BloombergNEF.

Possible scenarios

Scenario A: Accelerated green transition

The market leverages the situation to diversify and massively invest in renewables and battery technologies.

Scenario B: Oil market turbulence

Producers fail to cut output in time, leading to oversupply and volatile prices.

Scenario C: Moderate transition

Demand stabilizes in the medium term, with traditional and green energy sectors evolving in parallel.

Conclusion

OPEC’s revised forecast signals a shift in global energy dynamics. For producers, it’s a warning to adapt; for investors, it’s a chance to anticipate the next major wave in energy transformation.

Disclaimer:
This article is an analytical review by the BurgasMedia editorial board and reflects the opinion of an expert group based on current political, economic, and social developments.
The conclusions presented are not predictions or factual statements, but a hypothetical interpretation of possible scenarios.
The publication is not responsible for any discrepancies with future developments and encourages readers to form independent judgments based on verified sources.