Voters who skipped the first round of the presidential election and voted only in the runoff split evenly between Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov, an analysis of the vote by pollster Myara shows.

On Sunday evening, first polls by Alpha Research and Market LINKS showed Yotova ahead: 52.5% to 43.4% for Gyurov in the Alpha Research poll, and 50.7% to 44% in the Market LINKS one.

The previous development: Yotova leads presidential runoff, two polls show

The ticket of Yotova and Kiril Valchev won the election with 57.566%. Gyurov and Georgi Kandev got 39.483%, according to the Central Election Commission at 9:15am, with 100% of the protocols processed.

Nearly two thirds of Yotova's votes came from people who also chose her in the first round. Just over 13% of her votes came from people who did not vote then. Myara believes their share is bigger, because in such surveys people usually hide that they skipped the first round when they back their own candidate. The agency says "quite a few are hiding that they did not actually vote in the first round, but support Yotova".

Her biggest gain came from supporters of Progressive Bulgaria (PB) who skipped the first round. About 150,000 of them turned out for the runoff, and almost all voted for Yotova. PB supporters who voted rose to more than 600,000 in the second round, from about half a million in the first.

At least 100,000 of Yotova's votes came from people who backed Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of Vazrazhdane, in the first round. The party's votes number about 130,000, close to two thirds of that group in the first round.

A large share of Velichie (Ivelin Mihaylov) voters also went to the polls, mostly voting for Yotova. Despite a call from their leader Radostin Vasilev, MECH supporters leaned towards her. The BSP also added votes, and the rest came from a mix of other sources.

Gyurov's vote is more stable. Nearly three quarters of his voters say they backed him in the first round too, though Myara sees some exaggeration here as well. Those who voted only in the second round make up 17% of his voters, so new votes count for more with him than with Yotova.

Nearly 19% of Gyurov's votes, about 150,000, came from GERB. About 200,000 GERB supporters voted in the second round, against about 120,000 in the first. That is over 11% of the 1.9m votes in total, and three quarters of them backed Gyurov.

Another 10% of his votes, over 70,000, came from people who voted for PB at the last election. Myara says this is the protest part of the April vote for Radev, which has now returned to Gyurov. We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria makes up a smaller share of his vote than PB does of Yotova's.

Over 5% of Gyurov's votes, probably close to 50,000, came from the DPS. The number of party supporters who voted was twice the roughly 50,000 of the first round. Most of them voted for Yotova then, and for Gyurov now. The agency says he "opened the fan" of support more widely.

Yotova's vote skews more female. In Sofia and among the youngest voters, Gyurov leads by about two to one. Voters with university degrees are split almost evenly: 49.4% for Gyurov and 46.8% for Yotova. Voters of Turkish ethnicity split evenly between the two overall, but among DPS supporters Gyurov has the edge.