How the Ongoing Drought in June 2025 Impacts Bulgaria – Water Crisis Risk or Sign of a New Climate Model?

June 2025 has brought another wave of heat and lack of rainfall, placing Bulgaria under significant stress. Reservoir levels are far below normal, rivers in southern Bulgaria are approaching their lowest levels in decades, and farmers are reporting widespread crop losses. The key question arises: are we facing a temporary climatic anomaly or the beginning of a persistent trend requiring major changes?

Hydrological facts

According to the Global Drought Observatory, soil moisture in Bulgaria has dropped by nearly 20% compared to the 30-year average. Data from CE Report indicates that major reservoirs are filled to only 55% of capacity as of late May 2025 – around 8% lower than the same period last year.

“Over the past three years we’ve seen recurring extreme droughts that cannot be explained solely by short-term anomalies,” commented an expert from the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology.

Economic and social consequences

The agricultural sector is among the hardest hit – crop losses for wheat and corn are already estimated at 10–15% according to OECD. Water shortages for irrigation are pushing small farmers to the brink of bankruptcy.

Hydropower production is also under strain: electricity output from dams has dropped by over 25%, and distribution companies are turning to backup sources.

How are authorities responding?

The government has activated the national drought management plan, which includes:

• Priority supply of drinking water to affected areas;
• Redistribution of water resources under a new agreement with Greece signed in May 2025;
• Preparation for investments in new water facilities and modernization of irrigation systems.

“We need a long-term vision for water management, not just reactive measures,” warns a representative of WWF Bulgaria.

Possible scenarios

Scenario A: Adaptation and resilience

If the country invests in modern water infrastructure and efficient management, Bulgaria could cope with the new climate challenges and minimize economic damage.

Scenario B: Deep crisis

Ongoing droughts, without adequate measures, could lead to a water crisis and social tensions, especially in rural areas.

Scenario C: Natural cycle

If rainfall normalizes in the coming years, the current drought may remain an episodic phenomenon.

Conclusion

The 2025 drought is a warning for Bulgaria and the region. The country faces a choice: embrace the new reality and adapt, or risk a repeat of the crisis in an even more severe form.

Disclaimer:
This article is an analytical review by the BurgasMedia editorial board and reflects the opinion of an expert group based on current political, economic, and social developments.
The conclusions presented are not predictions or factual statements, but a hypothetical interpretation of possible scenarios.
The publication is not responsible for any discrepancies with future developments and encourages readers to form independent judgments based on verified sources.