Inflation Picks Up Speed: Can the Winter of 2025/2026 Change the Family Budget?

By August 2025, inflation in Bulgaria is steadily accelerating: annual inflation reaches 4.4% according to official data. The growth is most noticeable in sectors such as food, services, housing, and utility costs. Main reasons — increased domestic consumption, significant wage increases (minimum +15% from January, up to 50% in the public sector), as well as expectations for euro introduction from January 1, 2026. All these factors fuel consumer optimism, but also raise concerns about new rounds of price increases.

How Will Prices, Wages, and Credits React?

• Prices: Food, restaurants, utility services, and rents continue to grow above the EU average, especially in large cities and resorts. In Sofia and Varna, property growth expectations are 5–10%, in Burgas — 4–6%.
• Wages: Government and many private employers are increasing compensation, which partially offsets inflation. Minimum wage increases by 15%, and for certain groups (teachers, army, police) — up to 20–50%.
• Credits: Consumer loan interest rates reach over 9%, while mortgage rates remain relatively stable (around 2.7% on average). Floating rate loans and new loans show a slight increase.
• Savings: Household liquidity grows due to expectations of euro adoption. Deposit interest rates remain low, with real returns failing to cover inflation levels.

Who Are the Most Affected?

• Households with low and fixed incomes are particularly vulnerable to price increases in services and consumer goods.
• Borrowers with variable interest rates may feel pressure from increased monthly payments during the winter of 2025/2026.
• Tenants in major cities and resorts where rent growth already exceeds the national average.
• Small and medium business owners with high energy and raw material costs.

Possible Scenarios

• Realistic: Incomes grow with inflation levels, which prevents a sharp drop in purchasing power, but the most vulnerable groups feel the pressure more acutely.
• Optimistic: Regulators and the state limit speculative price increases while stimulating the economy through investments and stability in interest rates.
• Pessimistic: Prices grow faster than incomes, interest rates increase significantly, and some services and properties become inaccessible to broad segments of society.

Disclaimer: This article is an analytical review by the BurgasMedia editorial team and reflects the position of an expert group based on current events. The presented conclusions are hypothetical and are not forecasts. The editorial team is not responsible for future discrepancies and encourages readers to form their own opinions based on verified sources.