Cigarettes will cost 12 cents more a pack on average from March next year, when the state raises excise duty again, according to the Finance Ministry. By 1 January 2028 the rate will reach €132 per 1,000 cigarettes.

The last rise came in August, when the duty went up 6% to €120. The ministry expects the phased increases to bring an extra €220.2m into the budget in 2027.

Economist Dimitar Sabev of the Institute for Economic Research at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences is studying how smokers in Europe and Bulgaria react to price changes. He says rises of 10-15 cents, like the current ones, give smokers no reason to quit. The state collects its money and people keep smoking. In the past, he says, the rises were 15 and 20 stotinki.

Sabev believes about 15,000 people would quit if prices rose by around 12 cents. A sharp jump of 30-40 cents could make hundreds of smokers stop. Tobacco brings in more than 12% of Bulgaria's tax revenue, and the economist says that is similar to what corporate tax raises.

The Bulgarian Association of the Tobacco Industry does not object to the higher duty. The association says the ministry's long-term schedule of gradual rises gives businesses, consumers and the state certainty. It says the schedule will ease the move to higher tax levels when the EU's new excise directive is adopted.

Eurostat data show Bulgaria has the highest daily use of cigarettes and nicotine products.

One retired woman smokes a pack a day, buys 3 cartons a month and spends €110 a month on cigarettes. She started smoking as a schoolgirl while picking rose hips in the forest, and the price rises have not made her quit. She says next year's pension increase will cover them.

Another smoker admits that a high price is mainly what would make her give up cigarettes.