Secret decrees by Erdogan and army purges: preparation for conflict with Israel or internal control?

Against the backdrop of increasingly sharp rhetoric from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against Israel and his claim that "Israeli strikes in Syria and Lebanon also pose a threat to Turkey," claims have appeared in the media space that Ankara is preparing for a possible military clash with the Jewish state. A website linked to opponents of the Turkish regime claims that measures taken by the authorities point to such a scenario, while an Israeli expert is more cautious and believes the primary goal is strengthening control over the army.

Turkish dissident in exile and journalist Abdullah Bozkurt, founder and editor-in-chief of the investigative website "Nordic Monitor", argues in his analysis that the Erdogan government is taking a series of actions that, according to him, indicate a gradual preparation for a military scenario in which Israel is viewed as the main potential target of a future conflict. According to him, although Ankara has not officially declared Israel an enemy, the combination of regulatory changes, the expansion of emergency powers for the presidential administration, the accelerated development of missile systems and drones, as well as the intensification of anti-Israeli rhetoric by high-ranking Turkish officials, speaks to a "conceptual turn" in which Israel is presented as a key threat to Turkey's security.

Bozkurt emphasizes that one of the most significant elements in this direction is a presidential decree that came into effect in May 2024, which sharply expands the state's powers to mobilize "civilian resources, private companies, means of transport, and citizens with special skills" for the needs of war or crisis. According to him, the new rules allow the country to switch to a mode close to a state of war or emergency, even without a formal declaration of war, creating a framework for the rapid reallocation of economic and human resources to military goals.

The article also recalls that after the attempted coup in 2016, Erdogan carried out a massive "purge" in the top brass of the Turkish armed forces. Thousands of officers were dismissed or arrested, including many considered "pro-Western" or "pro-NATO". In Bozkurt's assessment, this process has consolidated the president's control over the security system and significantly reduced the possibilities for internal resistance to his strategic decisions.

In parallel, the publication highlights that in recent years, Turkey has deepened its contacts with the Hamas movement, allowed its fighters to operate from Turkish territory, and even granted Turkish citizenship to some of them. The author claims that Ankara has taken actions against Israeli activity in the country, while at the same time "turning a blind eye" to jihadist structures and Iranian networks operating on Turkish soil.

According to the analysis, if Erdogan decides to pursue a direct military conflict with Israel in the future, the "most likely theater of conflict" would be Syria – a place where Turkish and Israeli forces are already operating in the same geographical zone with overlapping interests. Bozkurt nevertheless explicitly notes that he does not have evidence of a decision taken by Ankara to start a war, but sees "only a complex of signs" which he believes testify to preparation and a strategic shift in Turkey's defense policy.

The material clarifies that what is presented is an "analysis and interpretation" by the "Nordic Monitor" website, associated with Turkish journalists in exile and regime opponents, rather than an official position of the Turkish government. At the same time, it is emphasized that Erdogan continues to raise the tone of his statements against Israel, declaring that its actions in Syria and Lebanon constitute a "threat to the security of Turkey".

An Israeli expert on Turkey, who wished to remain anonymous, commented to "ynet" that in his opinion, the "dramatic decisions" were taken primarily with the goal of "strengthening control over the Turkish army". He points out that "the justifications are contained in a document in the Turkish language attached to the original article, and these decisions can also be interpreted as preventive measures against a future coup attempt". According to him, this puts "the activity of the army under a magnifying glass".

The expert adds that "when you take the latest events and embed them into this narrative, it really does look like something very alarming is approaching". However, he clarifies: "While I consider the threat to be substantial and real, this time I believe the article is also written to attract attention. Bozkurt and other supporters of Fethullah Gulen seem to be trying to find allies here in Israel".