Diesel prices rise by 17% in a month, the war in Iran drives prices at the pump

Fuel prices in Bulgaria have marked a serious increase over the last month, with the most noticeable rise being in diesel - by about 17%. The main reason is the escalation of the war in Iran, which has once again shaken oil prices on international markets and has been reflected directly at the pumps in our country.

How prices are moving at the moment

In just over ten days at the end of July, a drastic increase was observed in the two main types of fuel. On July 13, the price of "A95 gasoline" was 1.48 euros per liter, and a few days later it reached 1.54 euros per liter. The price hike for "diesel" is far more serious - the price per liter was 1.53 euros, and in just 13 days it rose to 1.73 euros per liter, which means an increase of 20 euro cents per liter.

According to data from the Fuelo platform, diesel showed similar dynamics back in the spring - in March its price for the month grew by 0.33 euros per liter, or 25.20%, and in April the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria (CITUB) reported that "diesel in our country has become 36% more expensive since January". At that time, the increase in A95 gasoline was nearly 17%.

Gas station owners: We haven't seen such a pace

Gas station owners report that not even at the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East was there such a rapid price increase. Nikolay Nikolov, a gas station owner, points out: "The increase in prices for the last 10 days is exactly 180 euros per 1000 liters. This means 18 euro cents per liter. Since the start of the war, the price had not risen so sharply and in such a short time."

Another gas station owner, Dimitar Hadzhidimitrov, adds: "Diesel fuel has risen the most - by 30 cents over the last 20 days. So, at the pump, it has gone up by 21-22 cents. If the same situation persists, there is no truce, no stopping of the hostilities, we will see those 30 cents at the pump". He points out that the wholesale price increases have not even fully transferred to the final prices at the pumps yet.

The role of crude oil prices

It is interesting that the dynamics of crude oil itself do not fully follow the fuel price increases in our country. About two weeks ago, the price of a barrel of "Brent" was 83 dollars, within ten days it reached 100 dollars per barrel, but after that, a gradual decline followed to about 90 dollars per barrel. This means that part of the price increase at our pumps still does not reflect the subsequent correction downward on international markets.

Traders expect that if international tension persists, additional wholesale increases will gradually transfer to final prices, while in the event of de-escalation, the opposite trend is possible, as observed in June, when fuel prices fell after a temporary easing of the conflict.

Effect on consumption

Despite the price increase, fuel consumption has not dropped noticeably. Hadzhidimitrov confirms that his experience at the gas station shows the same trend - drivers continue to refuel in similar volumes, despite the higher prices per liter.