The service sector will be a key driver of growth in Central and Eastern Europe over the next two years, stated Mateusz Dadej, regional economist at credit insurer "Coface", during today's webinar presenting the "CEE Sectorial Heatmap" study. According to him, in the current economic landscape, marked by rising costs due to increasing fuel prices, services hold the best prospects for development. Dadej compares the situation to Western European countries, which have a significantly higher share of services in their GDP, and adds: "Central and Eastern Europe is in a development stage where services will definitely be an important driver of growth. This is typical. I believe this will be one of the drivers that will compensate for certain cyclical or geopolitical factors."

When it comes to specific opportunities in 2027 and 2028, the economist highlights three main areas: the service sector, information and communication technologies, and to some extent, transport. Regarding information and communication technologies, Dadej explains that they will benefit from current economic development, as the increasing purchasing power of households in CEE allows consumers to allocate a larger budget to such equipment and goods.

The transport sector is also viewed as an area with the potential to handle the current situation and high fuel costs more successfully. According to Dadej, the transport business has the opportunity to pass some of these costs on to consumers through the introduction of additional delivery and transport fees. Furthermore, shifts in trade flows — for example, when Germany exports less to China but balances its exports to other EU countries — could bring benefits to transport companies. The growing demand for such services creates a basis for optimism in this sector.

Despite these opportunities, the region faces serious challenges. One of them is the so-called "China Shock 2.0," where Chinese manufacturers, faced with weak domestic demand, are aggressively entering export markets, especially in Europe. This trend intensifies competition and squeezes the margins of local producers, most acutely felt in the automotive, chemical, and metallurgical sectors. In parallel, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a chain reaction that affected not only energy markets but also the prices of oil, natural gas, fertilizers, aluminum, and petrochemical products, increasing pressure on producer costs and renewing inflation throughout the region.

Another risk is related to fiscal policy. Dadej notes that the observed rise in sovereign debt yields on a global scale is being reflected in the CEE, which will provoke pressure on fiscal consolidation and can be considered a risk for business sectors in the region.

Regarding economic forecasts, the Coface report indicates that growth this year will be fueled by the SAFE defense program and the absorption of European funds under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The company's economists expect a slight slowdown in growth rates in the region — from 2.1% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, before seeing an improvement to 2.3% in 2027.

Forecasts of growth in the services and ICT sectors will also reflect on the economic dynamics in Burgas and the region.

In Bulgaria, a stable development trajectory is expected to be maintained, despite the projected slowdown in economic growth from 3.1% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. In the country, the construction sector is identified as having the most favorable prospects, due to increasing urbanization, low borrowing costs, a higher number of approved permits, and rising purchasing power. In contrast, the metal industry remains under pressure and is exposed to risk due to the cancellation of electricity subsidies, high energy costs, and weak demand in the civil construction sector.