OECD with a grim forecast: Bulgaria's economic growth is slowing down due to the energy crisis

Slowing down of the Bulgarian economy: What does the OECD report indicate?

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published an updated forecast, according to which the growth of the Bulgarian economy will slow down to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The reason for the slight downward adjustment is higher inflation, rising energy resource costs, and weakening domestic consumption.

The conflict in the Middle East is becoming a major risk to global growth, increasing inflationary pressure and weighing on economic activity, the OECD warns.

Key conclusions for Bulgaria:

• Inflation: An average annual value of 4.3% is expected in 2026.
• Investments: Public spending and European funds remain the main drivers.
• Budget deficit: Exceeds 3% of GDP due to social spending and investments.
• Necessary reforms: Focus on energy efficiency, the green transition, and fiscal consolidation.

Global scenarios: Optimistic vs. pessimistic

The OECD presents two scenarios in the "Economic Outlook" report:

• Scenario 1 (Limited shock): The energy market stabilizes from mid-2026. Global growth will be 2.8%.
• Scenario 2 (Prolonged shocks): Persistently high energy prices and supply shortages. Global growth would collapse to 2.1% in 2026.

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann urged countries to direct fiscal support only to the most vulnerable groups, while simultaneously maintaining incentives for energy efficiency so as not to accumulate additional public debt.