Bulgaria's Economy: Vienna Institute offers an optimistic forecast through 2028

Stronger economic growth for Bulgaria

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has published its summer forecasts, which show a more positive picture for the Bulgarian economy compared to the spring expectations.

Bulgaria's economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, with the pace accelerating to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028.

Key indicators:

• Public finances: The budget deficit is expected to shrink to 3% in 2026 and remain at that level until 2028.
• Inflation: Forecasts point to a level of 5.2% in 2026, followed by a gradual slowdown to 3% by 2028.
• Labor market: A minimal increase in unemployment to 3.7% is expected by 2028.

Regional context and risks

For the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, growth remains resilient, driven primarily by private consumption and European funds. However, experts warn of structural challenges such as weakening industrial competitiveness and dependence on the German economy. The stability of the region largely depends on geopolitical calm in the Middle East.