At the start of the week, the European natural gas market sent a new warning signal – prices once again crossed the threshold of 50 euros per megawatt-hour. The fuel shortage in underground gas storage facilities is deepening, reviving fears that Europe may enter the next winter with insufficiently filled reserves.

The benchmark "Dutch TTF" index, which serves as the primary price reference for gas trading in the EU, climbed above €50/MWh amidst persistent supply disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. According to data from the AGSI platform at Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of mid-May, European storage facilities are only about 36% full – significantly lower than the approximately 44% for the same period last year.

Interrupting supplies and a fragile balance

Analysts at ING recently warned that the gas market "is seriously underestimating the scale of supply disruptions." By their assessment, the available "buffer" to absorb additional shocks is much smaller than in previous years, making prices highly sensitive to any new negative news.

The Dutch financial institution also draws attention to another factor: when Asian buyers resume actively filling their LNG reserves, they will become direct competitors to European companies in the spot markets. This direct overlapping of demand could easily push prices beyond the current "moderate" range.

The root of the current crisis lies in the practical blockage of the Strait of Hormuz at the height of the confrontation between the US and Iran at the beginning of the year – a move that effectively halted a key artery for Qatari LNG headed to European terminals. Although a later truce brought short-term relief, experts from "Wood Mackenzie" warned that restoring full volumes from the Middle East will take several months. Meanwhile, "Bank of America" has revised its 2026 TTF forecast upward to €55/MWh, citing lower supplies from Qatar and unusually low levels in European storage facilities.

Ambitious storage-filling targets under pressure

The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) warned in its May monitoring report that reaching the mandatory 90% filling level for gas storage before winter could prove to be an extremely expensive exercise given current competition for LNG in global markets.

The "Reuters" agency calculates that in order to reach the 90% reserve threshold, the European Union must increase imports of liquefied natural gas by about 13% compared to 2025. This means an even more intense battle for available cargoes with Asian buyers and likely additional price pressure.

In response to these risks, the European Commission signaled readiness for a more flexible approach, proposing that member states consider the possibility of lowering the target indicator to 80%. The "Gas Coordination Group" assesses this level as sufficient to guarantee secure supplies during the winter. Nevertheless, as of April 1, storage facilities were only 28% full – the lowest value for this stage of the injection period in more than a decade and a half.

The exposed weakness of the post-Russian strategy

The current gas stress test clearly demonstrates one of the major gaps in Europe's new energy architecture since 2022. The decision to replace Russian pipeline gas with globally traded LNG brought a diversification of suppliers, but also a new type of dependency – on bottlenecks in the supply chain and on geopolitically sensitive routes.

The European Commission has already acknowledged that high energy costs will remain part of reality for at least several more months, regardless of how diplomatic efforts in the Middle East unfold. This means continued pressure on industry, households, and the competitiveness of the European economy.

With gas injection rates only slightly exceeding the average for the last five years, and against the backdrop of intensifying global competition for LNG cargoes, the coming months will be – in the words of analysts from "Investing.com" – a true "endurance test" for the European energy system and its ability to adapt to the new, more uncertain normality.