Assoc. prof. Lyuboslav Kostov, a former vice president and chief economist of the CITUB trade union confederation, expects next year's budget deficit to shrink to about 3.5–4%. He says pay costs in the state administration will rise by about 6–7%.

The deficit was first announced at 5.7%. Kostov thinks the government will include steps for fiscal consolidation, meaning measures to cut the deficit.

One is a measure that Bulgaria applies to six sectors, banks excluded. Eight European countries have already brought in similar ones. Kostov says it will add €800m in revenue to the budget. That money counts as a discretionary measure, meaning a separate government decision that cuts the deficit.

The total pay bill rises by 5%. Take out the interior ministry, defence and security, and the same 5% on the smaller sum becomes 6.5–7%, the economist explained. The budgets of the secondary spending units and the ministries will show the real increase. For teaching staff, the rise is 7.5%.

Kostov says that when incomes go up, the 8–9% inflation built up so far must be taken into account, so that people keep their buying power and can buy at least as much as they do now.

He expects the new budget to bring job cuts in the state administration. First, he says, it must be judged where staff are missing and which vacant, "empty" posts should go. He also says officials should check where extra performance bonuses are paid for vacant posts or to people of retirement age.

The budget is due to be presented at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE), and Kostov backs this decision. He says the budget should not be left only to MPs, whose political bias, opportunistic ties and personal interests distort the debate.

Changes to the second pension pillar are under discussion. In Kostov's own assessment, the returns of private pension funds do not make up for the cut in the first-pillar pension built into its calculation formula.

Kostov is no longer with CITUB. He decided to give more time to academic work, and says he will defend workers by other means. For him, the trade union cause is not a staff post or a salaried job.

As an expert, he took part in the initiative committee that nominated Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev, but he does not plan to take an active part in politics.