Fuel market analysis: what to expect for Bulgaria and Europe by the end of March?

Anyone who fills up a tank or pays the gas bill already feels that the beginning of March is not "quiet" in terms of energy. Prices are moving up, but without panic – rather in the style of "a few cents every week". The question is simple and very human: should we expect a new price jump by the end of March or are we going with "controlled tension" for now?

What's happening with oil: Brent around $79–80

On the world markets, March 2026 begins relatively calmly. The forecasts of major banks and analytical houses outline a basic scenario for trading Brent within the range of $76–84 per barrel during the month, with a slight "upward slope" if OPEC+ maintains discipline.

For the end consumer, this means no shock changes, but slow upward pressure. As long as there is no sudden geopolitical escalation or a collapse in demand, the scenario with smooth movements within a few percent remains more likely – enough, however, to turn into another 3–5 euro cents per liter at the pump.

Europe: an average of around 1.57 euros per liter of gasoline and diesel

The picture in the EU at the beginning of March is relatively clear. The average price of gasoline Euro 95 in the 27 member countries is around 1.574 euros/liter, and diesel – around 1.572 euros/liter. The difference between the cheapest and most expensive countries exceeds 0.80 euros/liter, which again puts the countries of Central and Eastern Europe among the "more affordable" markets, and Western and Northern Europe – in the upper part of the table.

In some countries, a sharper increase has already been felt in the first days of March – for example, in parts of Western Europe, diesel has risen by more than 5 euro cents per liter in 24 hours. This shows how sensitive the market is to short-term events – news about reserves, transport difficulties, decisions of OPEC+.

Bulgaria: a slight but sustained increase in fuel prices

In our country, fuel prices are also going up, although without dramatic jumps. According to data from specialized platforms, the most common gasoline A95 has increased from about 1.23 euros/liter at the beginning of February to approximately 1.26 euros/liter on March 1 – an increase of about 3 euro cents, or 1.6% per month. Premium gasoline A98 has hardly moved – an increase of about 1 euro cent.

Statistics for Bulgaria show that in March, a liter of gasoline Euro 95 is positioned in the range of 1.23–1.30 euros, and diesel is close to it, which puts the country among the cheaper ones in the EU. A comparison with regional markets shows that in Romania gasoline is significantly more expensive, and in some Western countries – more than 40–50% above our levels.

Gas: moderate growth, but far from peaks

In parallel with fuels, Bulgaria enters March with a slight increase in the price of natural gas. The Commission for Energy and Water Regulation approved an increase of 0.9% in the wholesale price for March – to about 32.6 euros/MWh, which is less than the requested 1.7%. It is important that compared to March 2025, the price is nearly 27% lower.

The reason for the more moderate price pressure is a combination of contracted quantities of Azerbaijani gas under a long-term contract and a calmer international market compared to the crisis years. This does not mean that the price cannot change upwards, but for now the horizon to the end of March looks rather stable, with possible small corrections.

What to expect by the end of March: basic scenario and risks

If we put the big picture together – moderately more expensive oil, a gradual increase in fuel prices in the EU and a slight increase in gas – the basic scenario by the end of March for Bulgaria and Europe looks like this:

• likely increase in gasoline and diesel prices by a few more euro cents per liter in most countries;
• maintaining Bulgaria's position among the "more affordable" markets in the EU, but with a feeling of a heavier tank due to the general increase;
• relatively stable price of natural gas, without drastic jumps, but sensitive to geopolitical news.

The risks that could "shake" this scenario are well known: a possible escalation in key oil regions, decisions by OPEC+ for stricter restrictions, unexpected data on a drop or peak in demand (especially from China and the USA). In this case, Brent could exceed the upper limit of the forecast range and accelerate the increase at the pumps.

What does all this mean for the "ordinary driver"

Translated from the "language of analyses" into everyday language – March is rather unlikely to bring shock jumps of the +20 cents per week type, but we are also unlikely to see price cuts. It is more likely that we will continue to pay a few cents extra every two or three weeks, while gradually getting used to new "normal" levels.

For households, this means more careful planning of longer trips, and for businesses – more precise calculation of transport costs. The good news is that at the moment there are no signs of a crisis like the one from a few years ago. The bad news – that even without a "crisis", fuels continue to silently eat up an ever larger share of the monthly budget.