Bangkok hosts the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank starting today. Record global debt, costly energy and artificial intelligence top the agenda.
On Tuesday, October 13, the IMF will publish its updated World Economic Outlook. The report gives new estimates for the global economy and for individual countries, including Bulgaria.
The meetings run until October 18. It is the first time the city has hosted the forum since 1991. Finance ministers, central bankers, business people, international organisations and civil society groups are taking part. Bulgaria is expected to be represented by Bulgarian National Bank governor Dimitar Radev and an official from the Finance Ministry.
Delegates will discuss the outlook for the global economy, where inflation and interest rates are heading, and whether countries can keep their budgets and debts under control. They will also talk about the stability of the financial system, new jobs and ways to attract more private investment.
Later on Tuesday, the IMF will present its report on global financial stability. On Wednesday, October 14, it will publish new estimates for public finances. The same day, governments, investors and financial institutions will discuss how to get more private money into developing markets.
The World Bank's Development Committee meets on October 15. The joint plenary session is on October 16, and the economic outlook for Europe will also be discussed then. On October 17, the IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee meets.
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva set out the main issues facing the meeting last week in Singapore. She said the global economy is being pulled in opposite directions. On one side is the shock to energy supplies. On the other is strong demand from the AI boom.
Global public debt is close to its highest level since the Second World War, Georgieva warned. It could soon top 100% of global GDP, meaning everything the world produces in a year.
For 17 years, interest rates were generally below the pace of economic growth, but that is now changing. As a result, growth alone is no longer enough for many countries to ease the weight of debt relative to their economies, Georgieva explained.
The talks will also cover how high oil and gas prices affect inflation, meaning prices in the shops, as well as interest rates and government budgets. The IMF expects central banks to stay on guard. It wants governments with high debt to present credible plans for the coming years on how to cut deficits without hurting growth or help for the most vulnerable.
The World Bank will focus in particular on artificial intelligence and how it can raise productivity and create new jobs. A discussion called "A little AI, a lot of jobs" is planned for the first day. According to an IMF estimate, used properly, AI could add up to 0.5 percentage points a year to global economic growth.
The gains from AI are concentrated in a few countries and companies, Georgieva also warned. This risks deeper inequality and new risks to financial stability.
The Asia-Pacific region's share of the global economy has grown from about 25% in 1991 to 43% today, she said.
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