Yotova and Valchev lead presidential race with 50.2% support, poll shows

Presidential candidates Iliana Yotova and Ivaylo Valchev have 50.2% support among voters who have already made up their minds for October 25, according to pollster Sova Harris. The pair in second place, Andrey Gyurov and Candev, have 23.7%.

Kostadin Kostadinov and Volgin have 12.7%, and 13.4% say they would vote for another pair. On these numbers, the race would go to a runoff between Yotova and Valchev and Gyurov and Candev, the pollster says.

Fewer than 50% of voters have made up their minds. Pollsters expect just under 2.5 million people to vote in the first round.

Sova Harris ran the poll for the newspaper Mediite between September 23 and 28. Researchers interviewed 1,000 Bulgarian citizens face to face at home. The margin of error is 3.1% at a 50% share and a 95% confidence level. Only people living in Bulgaria took part. Bulgarians abroad were not included.

Sova Harris says the mood from the last parliamentary election has carried through. The core support for the three leading pairs differs in size, and none of the other candidates pull much backing beyond their own base.

On trust, Iliana Yotova ranks first with 45.7%, followed by prime minister Rumen Radev with 44.6%. Among the other candidates, Andrey Gyurov leads with 19.4%, ahead of Kostadin Kostadinov on 17.2%, Krum Zarkov on 15.2%, Asen Vasilev on 14.7%, Radan Kanev on 12.8%, Bozhidar Bozhanov on 12.6% and Ivaylo Mirchev on 12.5%. Radostin Vasilev has 11.1%, Boyko Borissov 10%, Ivelin Mihaylov 8% and Delyan Peevski 2.7%.

Among institutions, the Bulgarian Orthodox Church has the highest trust, at 58%, ahead of the police on 47.5%, the army on 46.9% and the presidency on 46.8%. The government stands at 35.1%, parliament at 20.2%, the courts at 18.8% and the prosecution at 16.2%.

53.7% of people name high prices and inflation as Bulgaria's biggest problem. Poor governance worries 13.6%, corruption and the need for judicial reform 12.5%, unemployment and low wages 10.1%, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East 7.7%.

34.8% of those polled say the Radev government has done fairly well, while 44.6% say it has done fairly badly, 20.6% have no opinion.

Rumen Radev says the war in Ukraine cannot be won militarily and that EU leaders should seek diplomatic contact with Russia. 58.4% agree with him, 18% disagree, and 23.6% can't say. 46.5% of those polled back Ukraine making peace with Russia by giving up territory, 26.1% are against, and 27.4% have no opinion.

Only 12% of people back European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen's view that Russian energy supplies are toxic and that European countries should give them up in the long run. 65.8% disagree, and 22.2% can't say.

Pollsters also asked about two cases from the campaign. 39.4% say the pardon of the Petrich drug boss was a fair issue to raise, while 35.8% say it was raised unfairly, 24.8% have no answer. On the "Petrohan" case, 43.7% of those polled say the information was released appropriately, 31.1% say it wasn't, and 25.2% have no opinion.