IMF: By 2030, Bulgaria will surpass Greece in income, but will remain the poorest in the EU

The latest forecast data from the International Monetary Fund outline a clear picture of economic convergence in the Balkans: Bulgaria is quickly closing the income gap with Greece and by the end of the decade may surpass it in GDP per capita by purchasing power parity. At the same time, Greece is expected to lose positions in the European ranking and become the EU member state with the lowest purchasing power.

Greece slides down in the ranking

According to the IMF report "World Economic Outlook", Greece is the country with the largest projected decline in the European ranking by GDP per capita by PPP. By 2030, it is expected to fall from 29th to 32nd place among 41 European economies.

This means that Greece will be overtaken not only by Bulgaria, but also by Turkey and Latvia and will turn out to be the EU country with the lowest purchasing power – about 54,000 international dollars GDP per capita by PPP. Thus, our southern neighbor will find itself at the bottom of the ranking by real standard of living among the countries of the union.

Diverging growth trajectories

The convergence in incomes between the two countries is the result of contrasting growth dynamics. According to IMF forecasts, the Bulgarian economy will grow by 2.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 – rates that significantly outpace the expected average growth in the eurozone of 1.4% and 1.6% for the same period.

For Greece, the picture is more moderate: after a projected growth of 2.1% in 2025, the economy is expected to slow down to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. This gradual erosion of momentum after the strong recovery at the beginning of the decade puts Greece in a less favorable position compared to faster-growing economies such as the Bulgarian one.

The latest preliminary estimates of Eurostat already show how close the two countries are. In 2024, GDP per capita in Bulgaria by PPP is about 34% below the EU average, while Greece's lag is 30% – a difference of only four percentage points.

According to IMF data for 2025, GDP per capita by PPP in Bulgaria is approximately 44,950 international dollars, and in Greece – about 46,800. The difference is melting fast and according to the fund's baseline scenario, it can be eliminated by the end of the decade.

Bulgaria – faster catching up, but still at the bottom

Despite the higher growth rates, Bulgaria will not leave the "tail" of the EU by nominal GDP per capita. An analysis by Euronews based on IMF data shows that by 2030, our country will remain in last place in the union by this indicator, with a projected nominal GDP per capita of around 28,086 euros.

At the same time, the IMF slightly revised down the expectations for the growth of the Bulgarian economy in 2026 – from 3.1% to 2.8% compared to the October forecast for 2025. The correction is explained by global risks, including high geopolitical uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East and the possible impact on energy prices and investment activity.

Despite these risks, Bulgaria remains among the faster-growing economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the medium term. The cumulative effect of higher growth compared to the Eurozone, if maintained, is at the heart of the projected outperformance of Greece in GDP per capita by PPP by 2030.

Turkey – candidate for the EU, but with a higher income

Another important detail in the regional picture is Turkey. According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, in terms of GDP per capita by purchasing power parity, it will surpass not only Bulgaria and Greece, but also Latvia. This is a telling turn for a country – a candidate for EU membership, which in terms of real standard of living will surpass some of the current member states.

The IMF report emphasizes that in the period up to 2030, almost no other European country will change its position in the PPP ranking by more than three positions up or down. Against this background, Greece's decline by three places is among the most significant movements on the continent and symbolizes the long-term consequences of the debt and economic crisis that lasted for more than a decade.

What does this mean for Bulgarians?

The IMF forecasts outline a dual perspective for Bulgaria. On the one hand, our country is gradually catching up with some of its richer neighbors and has a real chance to surpass Greece in GDP per capita by PPP by 2030 – an important psychological and economic benchmark for Bulgarian society.

On the other hand, even after surpassing Greece, Bulgaria will remain with the lowest nominal GDP per capita in the EU. This means that although the real purchasing power of Bulgarians is improving, the differences compared to the most developed countries in the union – such as Luxembourg, Denmark or Germany – will remain significant.

Whether the country will take advantage of the chance for faster catching up depends not only on the external environment, but also on internal policy – on how sustainably growth, investments, education reforms and innovations will be maintained. The IMF forecasts are not an inevitable destiny, but a scenario guideline – a direction that can be accelerated or slowed down by the decisions made at home.