Iliana Yotova finished first by a small margin in Sunday's first round of the presidential election. She will face Andrey Gyurov in a runoff on 1 November, Italian media including ANSA, Sky TG24 and Il Messaggero report.

Turnout was about 22%, the lowest ever. About 6.5m people can vote.

ANSA says the narrow gap between the top two shows a complete failure by Bulgaria's pollsters. They had predicted a clear win for Yotova, with almost twice as many votes as Gyurov. The agency says she now looks set for a hard fight in the runoff.

Il Messaggero also expects a much tighter runoff than pollsters forecast. The paper says Yotova is backed by a socialist and nationalist-leaning coalition close to Rumen Radev. It says Gyurov strongly supports ties with the EU and Nato.

Yotova is the current president and was Radev's vice-president. Radev quit unexpectedly in January to lead a new anti-corruption party in the race for prime minister. ANSA calls his party populist, with a pro-Russian slant. Gyurov is a former prime minister, a liberal and pro-European.

ANSA says Radev's cabinet has wavered quite a bit on foreign policy and the war in Ukraine, even though Sofia backs all European efforts to help Kyiv.

Pollsters and experts quoted by Italian media link the low turnout to social and economic uncertainty in Bulgaria. Sky TG24 also points to a fragmented political scene. Since Bulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January, and because of turmoil in the energy sector, prices of food, services and heating have jumped, just before winter. The most optimistic forecasts say inflation in 2026 will top 5%.

In a foreign policy survey cited by the media, 47.7% of those asked want loyalty to European partners and protection of national interests. Another 36.4% want Bulgaria to follow only its own interests, and 10.5% want it to be guided only by the decisions of European institutions.

Italian media look at the Bulgarian vote alongside other elections held on Sunday. In Brazil, the left-wing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff. In Serbia, the party of former president Aleksandar Vučić, who wanted to become prime minister, lost. Il Messaggero says the result in Bulgaria is less certain than the clear outcome in Serbia.

Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic, so the president's powers are limited and mostly ceremonial, but the president is elected directly. The term is five years and can be renewed only once. A candidate wins the first round with 50% of the votes. For the runoff, ANSA cites the same 50%, with turnout above 50%. On Sunday turnout stayed far below that mark.

At the end of September, ANSA put Bulgaria's presidential election on a list of 10 European votes that will matter most over the next 12 months. The list also includes Serbia's parliamentary election and the Czech Senate election in mid-October. Next come Spain's parliamentary election at the end of November and Italy's next year, as well as France's presidential election in April and May next year.