This week, inflation is once again dominating global financial markets after unexpectedly strong US employment data—with 162,000 new jobs added against forecasts of just 55,000—forced investors to rethink their monetary policy expectations. Adding to this is the geopolitical factor: the escalating conflict between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a spike in oil prices, creating what Timo Emden of CapTrader calls a "cocktail of worries." Currently, US stocks are moving in an inverse correlation with energy prices and government bond yields, making the focus on upcoming US consumer and producer prices (where a 0.4 percent monthly rise in CPI is expected), the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting—which is dealing with 3.3 percent annual inflation in August—signals from the Bank of Japan, trade data from China (where ING and Citi forecast a decline in both exports and imports, yet a trade surplus), and Japan’s revised GDP (0.3 percent quarterly and 1.1 percent annually) critical for Wall Street.

Bond markets are reporting significant global turmoil. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries reached 4.8 percent, and according to ActivTrades, at one point they touched 4.798 percent—the highest level since January 2025. At the same time, British bonds reached a 19-year high of 5.294 percent, German bonds neared 3.4 percent, and Japanese bonds hit 3 percent for the first time since 1996. Analysts at Commerzbank note that with yields of 4.8 percent for 10-year and 5.3 percent for 30-year US bonds, they are now becoming a serious competitor to the stock market.

Price pressure on commodities is palpable, with US light crude (WTI) rising 9 percent for the week and October futures reaching 91 dollars per barrel. Commerzbank reports Brent crude at the 95 dollar level, while in Europe, natural gas has exceeded 70 euros per megawatt-hour. In the US, diesel prices hit a four-year high, with Charles Schwab data showing it briefly reaching 5.85 dollars per gallon. Eckhard Schulte of MainSky Asset Management and Edgar Walk of Metzler Asset Management are closely monitoring how this will affect economic stability, especially in the context of the upcoming Federal Reserve Board meeting on September 16.

Regarding interest rates, the market is divided. While Michael Barr is pushing for an increase, Christopher Waller stated he would support holding rates steady, and John Williams indicated that data so far does not justify a hike, signaling that they are opposing new steps for the moment. Stephen Brown of Capital Economics and Gareth Melson of Natixis Investment Managers Solutions emphasize that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be the final arbiter. The probability of a September hike is estimated at 59 percent according to LSEG, and Chris Wright, in his capacity as US Secretary of Energy, and Timo Emden of CapTrader are observing how the market copes with these expectations.

In the eurozone, the ECB's decision seems a foregone conclusion. Edgar Walk and analysts from Nordea, including Tuuli Koivu, expect a 25 basis point hike to 2.5 percent. According to Ulf Krauss of Helaba, solid economic data allows for this tightening. In parallel, the DAX index in Germany remains resilient above 26,000 points, although experts like Andreas Lipkow of CMC Markets warn of volatility risks, and the Ifo Institute forecasts growth for Germany for the 2026-2028 period. Meanwhile, India reports 7.8 percent GDP growth, although energy imports have become 56 percent more expensive, leading Helaba to highlight the conflict with Iran as a major risk for the Indian economy, which is diversifying its supplies through countries like Venezuela.

The BRICS forum in New Delhi on September 12 and 13 is emerging as a key geopolitical moment. Against the backdrop of a fragmented global economy and preparations for a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, investors are tracking Danske Bank's expectations for trade through the Strait of Hormuz, corporate results from Oracle and Adobe as indicators for artificial intelligence investments, and Japan's push for normalization under the watchful eyes of Kazuyuki Masu of the Bank of Japan and Yuxuan Tan of J.P. Morgan Private Bank.