In their September economic report, analysts from ING Think point out that the global economy remains resilient despite a series of challenges, such as droughts, extreme heat, trade clashes between the US and Canada, and disrupted logistics routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Carsten Brzeski, chief economist for the eurozone and head of macro research at the bank, emphasizes that the impact of these shocks over the summer was surprisingly limited. According to him, markets have become more adaptable to uncertainty, and businesses are reacting more to sentiment than to actual orders. However, Brzeski warns that this resilience is not guaranteed, as bond sell-offs are making financing more expensive, and investors are already factoring in higher risks such as a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and persistently high oil prices.

A comparative analysis between the reports from July 7 and September 2 reveals increased price pressure. Due to shifting geopolitical expectations surrounding the US and Iran, the bank has raised its forecasts for energy commodities. For the fourth quarter, Brent crude oil is now expected to reach 80 dollars per barrel, up from the previous estimate of 74 dollars, while the forecast for natural gas on the Dutch TTF index has jumped from 48 to 65 euros per megawatt-hour. This is also reflected in interest rate policy—the European Central Bank is expected to hold the deposit rate at 2.5 percent throughout the next year, rather than cutting it to 2.25 percent. At the same time, the bank has revised its yield forecasts for ten-year government bonds upward: to 3.4 percent for German bonds and 4.9 percent for US bonds.

For Bulgaria, the September analysis forecasts a more unfavorable combination for the coming year, characterized by a mix of slower economic growth and higher inflation. Specific forecasts for the country indicate the following:

  • Average annual inflation for 2026 is expected to be 5.1 percent, compared to the July forecast of 4.9 percent.
  • For 2027, economic growth has been lowered from 2.5 to 2.3 percent, and inflation has been increased from 2.9 to 3.3 percent.
  • For 2028, growth of 2 percent and inflation of 3.2 percent are projected—figures that were not included in the July edition.
The rise in price pressure is concentrated at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, with ING Think expecting inflation in the third quarter of 2026 to be 5 percent, up from 4.6 percent in the July analysis, and to reach 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026, instead of the previously expected 4.8 percent. For the second quarter of 2027, the forecast is 2.6 percent, compared to 2.1 percent in the July analysis. There is a similar increase for the first quarter of 2027, where the forecast has been adjusted from 4.5 to 5 percent.

Meanwhile, forecasts for annual Bulgarian gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the third and fourth quarters of 2026 remain at 2.6 and 2.3 percent, respectively.

Despite minor adjustments, Bulgaria maintains a higher growth rate than the eurozone, for which the bank predicts 0.8 percent in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027. The picture for other countries is mixed: Poland remains with a projected growth rate of 3.4 percent, Hungary sees an increase in expectations to 1.7 percent, while the Czech Republic faces a slight decline to 1.9 percent. Romania is in the most unfavorable position with a contraction of 0.5 percent and inflation of 8.5 percent. Globally, China is expected to grow by 4.6 percent, while in the UK and Japan, the focus is on expected changes in interest rates next year.