Economic paradox: Record growth, low unemployment and a feeling of poverty

If the economy were a car, the dashboard of "Bulgaria" AD at the end of 2025 would show perfect values: full throttle, high revs and almost no warning lights. But if you ask the passengers in the back seat – the millions of working Bulgarians – they will tell you that the ride is bumpy and the fuel (the money in their pockets) runs out too quickly. This dissonance between the "excellent" tables of the Ministry of Finance and the "empty" baskets in the supermarket is the big paradox of the year that is coming to an end.

Macro-miracle: When the numbers speak, but no one listens

Let's be honest - the country's economic team has something to be proud of. The data of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) for the third quarter of 2025 are more than optimistic: GDP growth of 3.2% on an annual basis. For comparison, "old Europe" (Germany and France) is struggling with anemic growth around zero. The Bulgarian economy is not just catching up, it is sprinting.

Even more impressive is the situation on the labor market. Unemployment is at a historic minimum, and businesses are literally begging for staff. In theory, this should be the "Golden Age" of the worker – the time when he dictates the rules and wages rise.

Hidden inflation and "living wage"

Why then is the feeling of injustice so acute? The answer lies in the structure of this growth. According to the latest analyzes of the CITUB, the "subsistence wage" (living wage) is growing faster than the real incomes of the majority. As of September 2025, a single working person needs over BGN 1547 net just to cover their basic needs. The alarming statistics show that nearly 60% of Bulgarians still do not reach this threshold.

Here we come across the phenomenon of "Greedflation" (greed + inflation). While official inflation has subsided to single-digit values, food prices have remained at crisis peak levels, and in some cases have continued to creep upwards. The profits of large retailers and energy companies are setting records, while the purchasing power of households is stagnating. The Bulgarian is not poorer as a sum in leva, but the lev in his pocket (soon euro) buys less quality of life.

The two Bulgarias: Sofia versus the rest

Macro-success also has a clear geographical address. If we divide the country, we will see that the "European" economy exists mainly in Sofia, Plovdiv and along the Varna-Burgas axis. There, the IT sector, outsourcing and industry generate incomes comparable to the average European ones.

But in small towns the picture is different. The Gini coefficient (the measure of inequality), cited by Eurostat, continues to place Bulgaria in the negative top of the EU ranking with over 35 points, with an average level for the union of around 30. The gap between the richest 20% and the poorest 20% is not shrinking, despite record GDP. This creates social tension that no "investment rating" can gloss over.

The euro: Not the problem, but part of the solution

It is easy in this situation to blame "Europe" or the upcoming adoption of the euro. But the truth is that without European integration, the situation would be catastrophic. European funds and investments are the lifeline that keeps many regions above water. Entering the Eurozone from January 1, 2026 will bring lower interest rates for businesses and, more importantly – light on pricing. When the price of milk is in euros and compared directly to that in Greece or Germany, speculation will become much more difficult.

Conclusion

Bulgaria enters 2026 as a country of paradoxes: a rich treasury, a growing business and poor workers. Economic growth is present, but the mechanism for its fair distribution is broken. The task for politicians and business is no longer how to achieve growth – it is a fact. The task is how this growth will come down from the macroeconomic tables to the refrigerator of every Bulgarian family. Because success that is not felt by the people is just statistics.