Higher energy prices since March, not the euro, are the main reason prices are rising in Bulgaria, says British financial expert and author David Marsh. In an interview, he called inflation of 6% too high and said it must fall. He said the state should cut its budget deficit and public spending.

Marsh was in Sofia this week for a financial forum, where Bulgarian National Bank governor Dimitar Radev also spoke. In the interview, he discussed the effects of the euro, the Bulgarian economy, public spending and the geopolitical threats facing Europe.

Almost a year after Bulgaria adopted the euro, fuel, clothes and food cost more. Many people blame the new currency, and many Bulgarians had wanted to keep the lev.

The data Marsh has seen show inflation picked up after March, not before. Energy prices have also been rising since March, when the war between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other began. He therefore thinks it is probably wrong to blame the euro for higher prices.

The expert says the cost of living has jumped mainly because of energy inflation, in other words because energy costs more.

He accepts that the euro played some part, because prices were rounded up slightly when the currency changed, as in other countries. But he said that was not the main cause.

Many people strongly feel the euro is to blame for higher bills, but the statistics do not back this up, Marsh said.

He told supporters of the lev it is too early to judge. Nothing can be reversed now, he said, and it will take time to see the effects of the change of currency. The exchange rate against the euro is gone and the way back is closed.

Marsh has followed the euro for 50 years. He says the common currency project has elements of fragility, but Bulgarians will gain if they stick to the course they chose.

The eurozone's biggest weakness is that it is a monetary union without a political union, he said. Countries share a currency but have no shared government to decide on budgets and taxes. But he said this will not be the main factor in how the euro affects Bulgaria.

He worries far more about the big eurozone countries than the new members, and does not expect a new crisis in the monetary union to start in Bulgaria. If a crisis does come, ties of solidarity and cooperation in the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will be extremely important.

Marsh sees the benefits of membership in the exchange of information, the end of uncertainty over the exchange rate and good relations with other central bankers.

Before the euro, Bulgaria had no say on interest rates. The lev was tied to the euro, and the country in practice followed decisions made elsewhere. Now the central bank governor has a voice in Frankfurt.

Radev attends the ECB Governing Council meetings, which are held every six weeks. The council has 27 members and he is one of them. Marsh thinks his influence there is small, because votes are rare.

Asked what he would do as finance minister, Marsh said he would ask for a mandate of several years, not one day. He would open talks with sources of international capital, meaning those who lend money or invest in other countries. He would want the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on his side.

To attract investment, he would also meet the big pension funds of Denmark, Sweden and Norway, as well as the Chinese and the Americans. Then he would put his own house in order, meaning the public finances.

The budget deficit is now annoyingly large, and Marsh would cut it. The deficit is the gap between what the state spends and what it collects in taxes and fees. When it is large, the state borrows to cover its costs.

He says the economy is growing fairly well and people are spending a lot, partly because low interest rates make loans cheaper. But he sees a risk of overheating, which is what economists call it when demand grows faster than the economy can produce, pushing prices up. So Marsh would cut public spending.

Britain kept the pound and left the European Union. Ten years have passed since the Brexit referendum, and Marsh says neither Britain nor Europe has gained from it. He thinks Britain will not return to the EU and does not want the euro.