Election Forecast: 68% of Bulgarians to Vote, 5 Formations in Parliament

According to a study by the Center for Analyses and Marketing, about 68% of Bulgarian citizens will vote in the early parliamentary elections on April 19, and five formations will be part of the next National Assembly. The study was presented by Yuliy Pavlov – director of the Center, at the National Press Club of BTA in Sofia.

The study was commissioned by the Center for Analyses and Marketing. It was conducted from February 17 to 24, 2026, among 1010 adult citizens. One percent of the sample corresponds to 53,000 people. The method of information registration is direct standardized interviews in the homes of the respondents. The maximum permissible size of the stochastic error at 50% shares is +- 3.1%.

Nearly 35% of the respondents state that they will vote and have decided for whom, and slightly over 33% respond that they will vote, but have not yet decided for which formation. About 14% have not yet decided whether they will vote, and 17.5% - will not vote.

According to Pavlov, about 3-3.2 million people will vote in the upcoming elections. This is at the moment; many things can happen in a campaign. Let's wait for the beginning of April to be able to say with greater accuracy how many will vote. This is an increase of about 400-500,000 compared to the previous elections. A large part of those who did not vote, and will now do so – will vote for the formation of Rumen Radev, commented Yuliy Pavlov.

According to the study, Rumen Radev's party (president in the period 2017-2026) will receive 33.7% among those likely to vote, GERB-SDS - 18.9%, “We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria” - 13.2%, “DPS-New Beginning” - 10.3%, “Vazrazhdane” - 8.1%, “BSP for Bulgaria” - 3.6%, “Morality, Unity, Honor” - 3.5%, “Velichie” - 1.2%, “There is such a people” - 1.2%, and “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms” - 0.5%.

“This is a rough picture; the fine adjustments will be given by the campaign and whether someone will make a gaffe,” said Yuliy Pavlov.

Nearly half of those likely to vote believe that a government will be formed after the elections. About 27% are of the opposite opinion, and just over 25% cannot assess, according to the study. 

The most serious problem facing the country, according to nearly 40% of the respondents, is high prices and inflation, for almost 14% - low incomes, for about 23% - the poor governance of the country, for just over 21% - corruption and judicial reform, and for 2.6% - other. Regardless of the appearance of a new player on the field, the attitudes are not very optimistic, noted Yuliy Pavlov.