Pump prices for propane-butane and natural gas will hold steady but won't drop after excise duty on both is scrapped from October 1. That's the forecast from Rosinka Bachvarova of the small fuel retailers' association, speaking to Bulgarian National Radio.

The reason is wholesale prices. Over the past few days and weeks, a ton of gas without excise duty has gone up by about 160 euros — around 10 cents a litre.

"Even once the excise duty is scrapped on October 1, this rise will eat up the discount," Bachvarova said. She said the increase hasn't hit filling stations yet, but within a week the price of gas will catch up to today's level — even without the duty.

Propane-butane now sells for 60, 66 or 67 cents a litre, and up to 70 cents in some places. Add the wholesale price rise on top, Bachvarova said, and prices won't fall to 60 cents.

Diesel is getting about 3 cents cheaper and petrol about 1 cent cheaper, with no offsetting duty changes for either. Diesel saw the sharpest rise after the Middle East crisis, and it's climbing again now because it's the most widely used fuel.

Bachvarova said future price moves will depend on the geopolitical situation, which she called highly uncertain. She added that election campaigns affect the market, holding prices down somewhat artificially and sometimes even pushing them lower. She hopes prices will stay steady after the election rather than jump sharply.

The association expects the same pattern once excise duty on natural gas is lifted.