The Institute for Market Economics (IME) warns that Bulgaria risks being cut off from foreign markets. Shipping in the Black Sea is unsafe, and the Danube is so low that the river cannot be used as a waterway.

The analysis follows the sinking of several merchant ships in the Black Sea in recent weeks. The economists' worst case is that the attacks go on until sea traffic all but stops.

Insurance premiums are rising, and so is the cost of moving goods.

Last year, 30m tonnes of imports and exports went by sea and 4m tonnes by river. Cargo through the sea ports in the first six months of this year is up 17% on the same period of 2025.

Nearly half of sea imports are fuel and chemicals. Dry bulk goods come next, including coal, ores and concentrates, building materials, fertilisers and scrap metal. Dry cargo makes up over 60% of sea exports, and liquid cargo about 20%.

Big firms and whole sectors, among them metals, chemicals, farming and the grain trade, rely on sea transport, IME says. The economists say costlier or cut-off shipping could disrupt production, hurt competitiveness and cut exports.

River transport also has problems because the Danube is at a record low. Over the past 10 years, river ports handled between 3.5m and 4.5m tonnes of cargo a year. In the first half of 2026 they handled nearly 14% less than a year earlier.