Forest fires in Europe have surpassed the records of 2025 due to El Niño

Several European countries are experiencing their worst wildfire season in over a decade. France has already surpassed its previous record, Spain is on the verge of exceeding last year's historical figures, and the intensifying El Niño phenomenon is triggering extreme heat and drought in the Mediterranean basin, having an increasingly tangible impact on global commodity markets.

According to French Minister Sébastien Lecornu, about 116,000 hectares have burned in France since the beginning of the year – a figure that already exceeds the previous seasonal record of 72,000 hectares registered in 2022. In Spain, more than 150,000 hectares have been devastated – six times more compared to the same period last year, reported Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

In total, more than 1,200 fires have been registered in the EU in 2026 – double the annual average, and the burned areas already exceed 250,000 hectares, which is approximately equal to the territory of Luxembourg. All this is happening while the climatic peak of the wildfire season is yet to come.

Data from the EU's Global Wildfire Information System shows that by the end of July, the total burned area in France was more than four times higher than the median value for the 2012–2025 period. In Spain, the excess is 3.5 times, and in Germany – three times compared to historical norms. Portugal and the United Kingdom also report significantly higher than usual figures, while in the Balkans, the situation this year remains relatively calm.

The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal climate forecast for the period August–October 2026 predicts a sharp intensification of El Niño. Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to reach around "2.9°C" during this period, with a projected peak in November. The formation of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast – a combination that typically amplifies extreme weather events in both directions. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates the probability of a strong episode at "63%", with consequences expected to last until the beginning of 2027.

The Mediterranean basin falls into the zone with an increased probability of below-normal rainfall, according to the WMO forecast – a moisture deficit that in itself increases the risk of fires, regardless of individual heatwaves.

Economic consequences are already beginning to emerge. In mid-July, UBS warned that a pronounced El Niño threatens to reignite inflation across Latin America, pointing to Colombia as the most vulnerable country. Analysts at Moody's forecast a slowdown in economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region to "4.1%" in 2026, down from "4.3%" in 2025, citing food inflation caused by El Niño, rising commodity prices, and tightening monetary policy as key risks.

The export price of rice from Vietnam in May rose to "412 dollars" per ton amid fears of drought, and the UN FAO rice price index increased by "2.7%" for the month.

According to Yahoo Finance data based on historical El Niño patterns, wheat production in Australia during the 2026–2027 season could decline by between "20% and 60%" year-on-year. Since the phenomenon is expected to intensify further over the next three months, economists and meteorologists unanimously warn that the worst is yet to come.