The Russian plans for the capture of Odesa: An impossible mission or a constant threat?

Russia has never hidden its intentions for complete domination over the Black Sea through the capture of Odesa and a breakthrough to Transnistria. This is part of its imperial doctrine, regardless of whether it has the necessary military capacity. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia planned a naval landing against Odesa, but the plan was thwarted by the powerful coastal defense and the lack of intelligence information about the Ukrainian anti-ship complex "Neptune". Today, Ukraine has not only "Neptune", but also Western Harpoon systems, as well as unmanned drone boats that effectively control the Black Sea and have paralyzed the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

As for the ground offensive, the nearest Russian group is located on the left bank of the Kherson region, but it is not concentrated for a massive offensive. If Russia wants to reach Odesa by land, it must cross the Dnieper, capture the right bank of Kherson, pass through the entire Mykolaiv region, control the estuaries and rivers in southern Bessarabia, covering over 180 km on dangerous routes with unsustainable losses. The same army that cannot capture Chasiv Yar is unlikely to be able to reach Odesa.

Russia, unable to capture Odesa, terrorizes it with constant attacks by kamikaze drones. The city is in urgent need of additional air defense, not only for Odesa, but for the security of the entire south of Europe. The fact that Odesa withstood in 2022 does not mean that the enemy has been defeated. Every Ukrainian town, front or rear, is a target, and Europe must bear this in mind.