Russian Missile Terror: An Analysis of the Strike on Ukraine and the Ukrainian Response

Russian Missile Terror Meets Counterstrikes: 629 Weapons Launched on the Night of August 28

KYIV — While global diplomacy was working toward a peaceful resolution to the conflict, the aggressor issued a new bloody ultimatum. On the night of August 28, amid its ostentatious participation in U.S. President Donald Trump's peacekeeping initiatives, Russia launched a massive combined strike on Ukraine. The attack involved 629 different strike weapons. This assault not only demonstrated the Russian Federation's complete disregard for all peace efforts but also revealed a number of new, disturbing trends.

An analysis of the events shows that Russian occupying forces used the following on territory behind the front line:

• Two Kh-101 cruise missiles
• Seven Kalibr cruise missiles
• Ten Kinzhal missiles
• Twenty-five Iskander-M operational-tactical ballistic missiles
• Twenty-seven Shahed-136 drones
• 131 artillery shells
• 139 MLRS rockets
• 282 guided aerial bombs

According to available information, this massive strike was originally planned for August 24, Ukraine's Independence Day. However, the presence of foreign delegations in Kyiv forced the Russian command to postpone the operation. This fact indicates that despite its aggressive course, the Russian army refrains from attacking the capital when high-ranking international guests are present.

The Aggressor's Systemic Weaknesses

A similar attack was also planned for August 21. At that time, the Black Sea Fleet deployed its Kalibr cruise missile-carrying ships to a combat position, but no missiles were ever launched. The probable reason for the thwarted launch was Ukrainian drones transiting over the Black Sea toward the Afipsky oil refinery.

The version of the failed launch was confirmed by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR), which published a video showing a Ukrainian strike drone hitting a small Buyan-M project missile ship in the Sea of Azov, a Kalibr carrier. As a result of the strike, the ship sustained damage to its side and radar system.

This successful strike makes the already limited combat mission of Russian warships—terrorist attacks with Kalibr missiles on the Ukrainian rear—even more problematic. From now on, the Russian fleet will be vulnerable not only to naval but also to aerial drones.

Ukraine's Response: Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries

In parallel with the naval attacks, Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk and Afipsky oil refineries. The combined capacity of these plants exceeds 13 million tons of oil per year, representing almost 5% of Russia's total production. The successful attacks are deepening the fuel crisis in Russia, where fuel shortages for the domestic market have already reached critical levels in a number of regions.

Along with the problems with the fleet, there is also a limited number of Kh-101 missiles launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers. According to experts, this is a direct result of operation "Spiderweb", which has seriously limited the capacity of the Russian strategic aviation. The current situation shows that attacks with 50 or more Kh-101 missiles and the simultaneous takeoff of 20 or more bombers will no longer be possible, as there simply aren't that many combat-ready aircraft, and those that are available are operating at the limit of their resources.

In this context, the latest Russian strike on Ukraine can be described as a convulsive act of terror dictated by the limitations of the Russian military-industrial complex.

In conclusion, Russia was preparing a massive strike for Ukraine's Independence Day but did not dare to carry it out in the presence of foreign delegations in Kyiv. This shows both a desire to continue terrorizing the civilian population and a fear of international presence. The occupiers once again tried to demonstrate "strength" and deliver an ultimatum to U.S. President Donald Trump through a bloody genocide against Ukrainians. In response, Ukraine struck key Russian oil refineries and demonstrated the systemic weakness of Russian air defense.

In the fourth year of the full-scale war, not only the predatory face of the regime but also its fears and vulnerabilities are coming to light. Russia relies on stereotypical weapon combinations, but at the same time, serious problems with its aviation, navy, and logistics are becoming increasingly apparent.

• This material is part of a joint project of OBOZ.UA and the Information Resistance group.
• Author: Alexander Kovalenko