The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has revised its forecast for the growth of the Bulgarian economy upwards for the period 2025-2027, as is clear from the periodical "Macroeconomic Forecast".

GDP Growth:

  • Growth is expected to remain close to the 2024 levels: 3.2% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026 and 2027.
  • Private consumption will continue to be the main driver.
  • Net exports will have a negative contribution due to weak external demand.

Eurozone Influence:

  • Expectations for accelerating deposit growth in 2025 and subsequent slowdown.
  • Joining the Eurozone will strengthen the transmission of the ECB's monetary policy.
  • Slowing growth of loans to the non-governmental sector (but remains high).

Inflation:

  • Average annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.6% in 2025 (2.6% in 2024), with a main contribution from food and services.
  • In 2026, inflation remains similar (3.5%) and slows to 3.2% in 2027.
  • Core inflation will remain high.
  • The revision of the forecasts is due to technical changes, data from the NSI, and assumptions about the external environment.

Revisions in forecasts:

  • The inflation forecast has been revised in the direction of a stronger increase at the end of 2025 (by 0.1 percentage points).
  • The inflation forecast at the end of 2026 is reduced by 0.2 percentage points, and the average annual inflation is reduced by 0.1 percentage points.
  • For 2027, the inflation forecast at the end of the period remains unchanged, and the average annual inflation is expected to be lower by 0.1 percentage points.