Europe may have freed itself from excessive dependence on Russian pipeline gas, but it has done so by replacing it with another external supplier. This is shown by a new analysis from the "Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis" (IEEFA).
According to the study, the United States is on track this year to become the largest gas supplier to the European Union, overtaking the previous leading partner in terms of energy security – Norway.
The US is offsetting Norway's pipeline advantage thanks to the rapid expansion of LNG plant capacity along the US Gulf Coast, as well as the sudden contraction of supplies from the Middle East due to the conflict with Iran. Qatar, which is usually the world's second-largest LNG exporter, finds itself on the "wrong side" of the Strait of Hormuz for global shipping.
As a result, gas liquefaction terminals in the US now provide approximately two-thirds of all LNG imports into Europe. According to IEEFA projections, this share could grow to about 80 percent by 2028.
For the same reasons – the realignment of global flows and tensions in the Middle East – supplies of Russian liquefied natural gas to Europe are also increasing. They are at their highest level since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, despite the EU's intentions to end imports of Russian LNG by the end of next year. In the first quarter alone, imports of Russian liquefied natural gas rose by 16 percent year-on-year.
"Liquefied natural gas has become the Achilles' heel of the European energy security strategy, leaving the continent vulnerable to high gas prices and new forms of supply disruption," Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at IEEFA, said in a statement. "The 2026 energy crisis shows that as long as European countries continue to rely on gas, they must accept the associated geopolitical risks."
Part of the solution, according to the institute, is a targeted reduction in demand. Natural gas consumption in Europe is on track to shrink by about 14% by 2030, with more expensive liquefied natural gas accounting for a disproportionately large share of declining supplies.
IEEFA emphasizes that the accelerated deployment of heat pumps in the EU residential sector could further reduce the need for gas. This, in turn, has an impact on the required number of import terminals: according to the analysis, it is entirely possible that by 2030, Europe will have excess LNG receiving capacity.