Financial experts from the leading international consulting company "Iberfirst" presented a detailed study on economic expectations for Bulgaria with the upcoming euro adoption. Forecasts indicate that harmonized inflation in 2026 will range between 2.8 and 3.3 percent, with the effect of currency introduction expected to be extremely limited.
The analysis emphasizes multiple strategic advantages for the national economy. These include significantly improving foreign trade relations, increasing attractiveness for foreign investors and tourists, eliminating additional transaction costs, and optimizing capital processes.
However, the experts also identified significant challenges for local businesses. The main focus is on the need for continuous technological development and improving operational efficiency. According to the study, Bulgarian exports are already showing a trend towards diversification with a focus on high-tech products.
The comparative analysis with the experience of Slovenia and Croatia reveals interesting economic parallels. When introducing the euro in 2007, Slovenia reported a minimal price increase of around 0.3 percentage points, mainly due to rounding processes. The Croatian scenario from 2023 shows a slightly different picture with an inflation effect between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points.
Dean Todorov, regional director of "Iberfirst" for Bulgaria, provides a key expert comment. According to him, the currency board eliminates significant currency risks, but introducing the euro will remove daily currency conversion costs and create a more favorable investment environment.
The analysts' final forecast is optimistic - inflation pressure is expected to be controlled, with the Bulgarian scenario being closer to the Slovenian model of smooth integration.