The international rating agency Moody's maintained Bulgaria's Baa1 rating, but expressed concerns about the future of the economy.
The agency notes that the low but increasing burden of public debt and the high capacity to service the debt are positive factors. Membership in the EU and the Eurozone supports institutions, but corruption remains a challenge.
Moody's emphasizes that the adoption of the euro from January 1, 2026, is a positive factor, but its benefits have already been reflected in the rating.
Political instability after the government's resignation in December 2025 is a signal that the main problems have not been resolved. The risk of delays in reforms and investments under the Recovery and Resilience Plan is significant.
Moody's predicts that public debt will exceed 30% of GDP in 2026 and will reach 37% by 2030. However, the debt burden will remain below the average for the Baa1 rating.
An upgrade of the rating may occur with improved institutional efficiency and fiscal policy. A downgrade may occur with a deterioration in fiscal indicators or a slowdown in economic growth.