January 27, 2026. The Sofia Economic Forum is taking place today in the halls of the Sofia Balkan Palace Hotel, where business and government representatives are discussing the future of the Bulgarian economy. The focus is on the issue of inflation - a topic that concerns each of us, especially in the context of the Eurozone.
Tranquility on the Financial Front?
Deputy Finance Minister in resignation, Metodi Metodiev, made a reassuring statement to journalists. He does not expect serious shocks regarding inflation in Bulgaria over the next two years. Is this just reassurance, or is there a basis for such optimism? We will see.
Interestingly, Metodiev mentions the upcoming flash estimates for inflation from the National Statistical Institute. These estimates, which are published at the end of each month, are key to monitoring the economic situation. But what do the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance show?
Forecasts and Reality
According to Metodiev, the forecasts are for inflation within the range of 3.5-3.6%, which is in line with the Autumn macroeconomic forecast. There are even slight hopes for improvement. Optimistic, right? A further reduction in inflation, calculated according to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, is also expected next year.
But what are the real dimensions of these figures for the average person? Will we feel relief in our wallets? Or will we just observe statistical data that does not correspond to our daily lives?
The Transition to the Euro and Its Impact
One of the important issues is related to the process of exchanging levs for euros. Metodiev assured that the transition is going smoothly. He emphasizes that after mid-2026, citizens will be able to exchange their levs without fees at the Bulgarian National Bank. Why is this important?
Metodiev gives the example of Germany, where large quantities of old German marks are still being exchanged - about 50 million per year. This suggests that the process will not end suddenly. The state has provided mechanisms to facilitate citizens, but is this enough?
Control and Prices
The period of increased control and dual labeling of prices will continue until August 8 this year. This is a measure aimed at protecting consumers from illegal price increases during the transition to the euro. How, however, does this control work in practice?
Metodiev reports that the Bulgarian institutions are doing their job in terms of inspections and issuing acts. At the moment, there is not a single registered complaint regarding issued acts and decrees. This may mean that the control is effective, or simply that citizens are not sufficiently informed about their rights.
Euro Banknotes in Circulation
Data from the Bulgarian National Bank shows that there are currently about 5.3 billion euros in circulation. This gives an idea of the scale of financial flows and the readiness of the economy for the euro. But how will this affect consumers and businesses?
Ultimately, we will see how these forecasts will turn into reality. Will inflation be contained? Will citizens feel an improvement in their standard of living? We have yet to find out. We will continue to closely monitor the development of the situation.