Seven countries from the OPEC+ alliance are continuing as planned to increase their monthly production quotas – the latest increase is 188,000 barrels per day from June – but the war with Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz are turning these numbers into something merely symbolic. At the next regular meeting on June 7, the trend is expected to continue: the countries in the alliance intend to fully restore the voluntary cuts, first introduced in 2023, by the end of September.
Saudi Arabia with lowest production in 36 years
This week, Riyadh notified OPEC that in April, the country's oil production fell by another 651,000 barrels per day – to 6.316 million barrels per day.
This is the lowest level since the Persian Gulf War in 1990. Since February, production in the kingdom has fallen by about 42% as intensified military action by the US and Israel against Iran began to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on May 11 that global oil supplies are shrinking by approximately 100 million barrels per week and that a normalization of energy markets may not occur before 2027.
"Paper" barrels in a real crisis
The quota increase is part of the phased lifting of OPEC+ voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day – a process that began in 2025, but has already been overtaken by the actual development of events.
The May increase was fixed at 206,000 barrels per day, and the July one at 188,000 barrels per day; the latter was revised downward after the United Arab Emirates left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, depriving the coordination mechanism of the third-largest producer in the alliance.
On May 13, the International Energy Agency reported that in March and April, global oil stocks were falling at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day and that the market would remain "in conditions of acute supply shortage" at least until October – even with a rapid political settlement of the conflict.
The US Energy Information Administration has significantly revised its forecasts for inventory drawdowns in 2026 upward: an average drop of 2.6 million barrels per day is expected instead of the previous estimate of just 300,000 barrels.
A shaken alliance at a time of greatest trial
The exit of the UAE has further complicated an already tense picture. Abu Dhabi's departure removes approximately 3–3.5 million barrels per day from OPEC's baseline production level and deprives the organization of spare capacity at the most inappropriate moment.
According to Morgan Stanley estimates, global oil stocks fell by about 4.8 million barrels per day in the period from March 1 to April 25 – the largest quarterly drop since records began.
Against the backdrop of a de facto cessation of production and exports throughout the Persian Gulf, the increase in OPEC+ quotas boils down to accounting adjustments – more of a declaration of intent for a future, post-war market, which for now remains an unattainable hypothesis.