The trade union organization CT "Podkrepa" published an alarming analysis regarding the expected execution of the state budget for 2025, which reveals a potential revenue deficit between 3.5 and 8 billion leva. The experts' forecast points to significant challenges in the country's financial planning.
According to the detailed study, state budget revenues are expected to vary between 46.4 and 51.6 billion leva, compared to the initially planned 55.2 billion leva. The value-added tax sector remains the most critical, with projected revenues around 20 billion leva, compared to the planned slightly under 25 billion.
Economic analysts from the union warn that the current forecasts are based on the consumption of taxable goods and services, with significant risks of reduced collection. They point out that the initial budget parameters are overestimated.
Additional challenges to the budget's revenue side could arise from a potential deepening recession in the eurozone, continuing decline in industrial production, and adverse effects of international trade policy.
A positive highlight in the analysis is capital expenditures, which by June 30 have been utilized at over 33 percent of the annual plan, representing the highest absorption rate in recent years. Experts attribute this result to possible delayed payments from previous periods and advance receipts.
A serious warning is also issued to the social security system, which continues to generate persistent deficits. The main criticism is that the system primarily taxes low incomes, while high incomes remain relatively untaxed due to the existence of a maximum social security threshold.
The CT "Podkrepa" analysis provides an in-depth and critical assessment of the current budget situation, emphasizing the need to review fiscal strategy and more precise revenue planning.