War, power and changes: What awaits the world by the end of 2025

Ukrainian society continues to show resilience, despite fatigue from the war and economic pressure. At the level of civil society, youth and volunteer movements, entrepreneurial initiatives and regional structures are being activated. Ukrainians are increasingly insisting not only on weapons and external support, but also on systemic internal changes. This will form a new social contract by the end of 2025.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains high international popularity, but faces growing domestic demand for renewal. If he manages to respond to this request through a broader political coalition and institutional reform, he may remain a symbol of the transition period. Otherwise, new leaders may emerge by the end of 2025 - beginning of 2026.

By 2025, Russia will definitively transform from a "great power" into a country with limited sovereignty. The economic and military dependence on China, Iran and North Korea is becoming increasingly evident. This situation makes Russia vulnerable to partners who not only "help", but begin to dictate terms. Internally, the ritual vertical of power is preserved, but cadre fatigue and technological degradation are becoming more and more apparent.

At the European level, a new realism is taking shape in 2025. Public attitudes in key countries such as Germany, France and Italy are moving away from unconditional support for Ukraine towards a more pragmatic review of strategies. Humanitarian and financial assistance to Kyiv is maintained, but questions are growing on how long and under what conditions Europe will take on commitments to Ukraine in the post-war future.

NATO is strengthening its eastern flank and continuing cooperation with Ukraine outside of formal membership. By the end of 2025, the discussion of a new security architecture in Eastern Europe, where Ukraine will be a key element, is possible. Nevertheless, domestic political processes in the US and some European countries may delay formal commitments, especially with a change of power in Washington.

China's position remains multi-layered. It is in no hurry to intervene directly, but is reaping dividends from the ongoing conflict. In 2025, Beijing will play an increasingly active role as an "alternative intermediary" between Moscow and the conditional West, while at the same time strengthening its economic ties with the post-Soviet countries. Its main goal is to maintain instability that diverts the attention of the United States from Asia.

Platforms like Telegram, X (Twitter), TikTok and YouTube continue to shape not just an information field, but real attitudes on the fronts and in the capitals. By the end of 2025, we can expect large waves of disinformation, attempts to discredit leaders, subversive campaigns and cyber attacks. It is in this environment that the struggle will be not for territories, but for meanings.

The public conflict that has erupted between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is a marker for new processes in US domestic politics. The clash between a representative of the old populist wave (Trump) and a technocratic billionaire-globalist (Musk) signals a growing rift within the right-wing camp in America. This directly affects foreign policy, as Trump is increasingly hinting at a refusal to intervene in conflicts abroad, contradicting the high-tech lobby linked to global supply chains and digital control.

2025 is a year of tectonic changes. The open hot phase of the war may be replaced not by a formal peace, but by restructuring and rethinking. Ukraine will have a chance for internal transformation, Russia will face the consequences of its dependence, Europe will try to save face in the face of growing pressure from societies, and the United States will balance on the edge of internal division, capable of changing the entire geopolitical structure.