The American analytical center RAND Corporation, commissioned by the United States Air Force, has developed a scenario analysis of a potential armed conflict between NATO and Russia, focusing on the air component of such a clash over the territory of Europe. According to the report, in the initial stages of the conflict, Russia could inflict significant strikes on NATO forces thanks to the deployed air defense systems and combat aviation. However, experts believe that even in the initial phase, the Alliance could achieve air superiority over Eastern Europe.
A key factor for this dominance is the elimination of the Russian air defense system, which will allow NATO to use reconnaissance drones and manned aircraft to detect weaknesses in the enemy's defense and to carry out targeted strikes on command posts, logistics hubs and combat formations.
The report also highlights the possibility of escalation: if the Russian armed forces suffer serious losses or if the Kremlin perceives NATO's actions as a threat to its territorial integrity, the conflict could escalate into a nuclear confrontation. RAND experts point out that this is not a forecast, but a scenario modeling - a necessary tool in the face of growing security risks in the region.
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