World Meteorological Organization: a new global heat record is likely by 2030

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in a new report that the planet is heading toward a continuation of the streak of record-breaking heat. According to the analysis, there is an 86% probability that at least one year in the 2026–2030 period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.

The forecast is part of the WMO's updated global climate review for the period of one to ten years ahead, prepared by the United Kingdom's Met Office. It shows an alarming acceleration of the warming trend.

The 1.5°C threshold – crossed more and more often

According to the report, average annual surface temperatures in the 2026–2030 period are expected to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the average values for the 1850–1900 period. This is the period accepted as the reference "pre-industrial" period.

The WMO estimates that the probability of the global temperature temporarily exceeding the pre-industrial level by 1.5°C in at least one of these years – the key threshold of the "Paris Agreement" – is 91%. The chance that the five-year average for the 2026–2030 period will also cross above 1.5°C is estimated at 75%.

The 1.5°C threshold was already temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the Earth's average surface temperature was approximately 1.55°C above the pre-industrial level. The WMO notes that the probability of the global temperature exceeding 2°C in at least one of the next five years remains "extremely unlikely" – under 1%.

The role of El Niño and accelerated warming in the Arctic

The report notes a tendency toward the formation of "El Niño" conditions in the central tropical Pacific, especially in 2027 and 2028. The lead author of the study, Dr. "Leon Hermanson" from the UK Met Office, points out: "Forecasts suggest that an El Niño is expected toward the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood that the following year – 2027 – will turn out to be another record-hot year".

The Arctic continues to warm significantly faster than the rest of the planet. It is expected that over the next five extended winter seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures in the Arctic will be about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average. This deviation is more than three and a half times the global average.

The report also predicts a further reduction in sea ice extent in the "Barents Sea", "Bering Sea" and "Sea of Okhotsk", which has consequences for ecosystems, fishing, and navigation.

Methodology and context of the warning

The updated climate review builds on the forecasts of 13 research institutions, including the "Barcelona Supercomputing Center", the "Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis", the "German Meteorological Service" and the "United Kingdom's Met Office". Combining these models aims to provide a more reliable picture of the likely scenarios for the coming years.

The WMO emphasizes that warmer years in which the temperature temporarily exceeds 1.5°C do not in themselves automatically mean that the long-term goals of the "Paris Agreement" have definitively failed. The agreement works with a sustained warming trend over a period of about 20 years, not individual spikes.

The warmest years in history – already one after another

The report comes against a backdrop of confirmed data according to which 2025 is among the three warmest years ever recorded – with an average temperature approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 averages. This means that the last eleven years are also the eleven hottest in the modern history of instrumental measurements.

The scientific community sees in these trends a clear signal that the window to limit warming and avoid the most severe consequences of climate change is rapidly closing. The WMO calls on governments to accelerate measures to reduce emissions and adapt to the already inevitable effects – from more frequent and intense heatwaves to changes in precipitation and extreme weather events.