Orbán in the US: Sanction Relief and Trade Deal

The Hungarian prime minister's trip across the ocean seemed like a triumph: an abundant flow of praise and exemption from sanctions on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel – exactly what he wanted.

All of this just five months before difficult elections.

But if we look more closely, the picture is not so clear. The American side achieved a tough trade deal – and an expensive one for Hungary.

And there is no progress on Viktor Orbán's biggest problem: ending the war in neighboring Ukraine and, along with it, the long shadow that the conflict casts over Hungary.

Let's first look at Orbán's key victory – the exemption from US sanctions for one year.

The time frame is interesting. There is a clear desire on the American side to help their friend win the April elections. And the exemption even partially coincides with the European Commission's request to all member states to stop importing Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel by the end of 2027.

What is missing from the point of view of the European Union is any political commitment from Orbán to fulfill this requirement – a commitment that has been undertaken and fulfilled by the Czech government. And the EU is trying to tighten energy sanctions – to the outrage of Hungary and Slovakia.

Far from the media spotlight, the Hungarian energy company MOL is modernizing two of its refineries – in Százhalombatta in Hungary and the Slovnaft facility in Bratislava – to process Brent crude oil instead of the high-sulfur Urals that flows through Russian pipelines.

On Friday, MOL stated that 80% of its oil needs could be imported through the Adria pipeline from Croatia, albeit with higher logistical costs and technical risks.

So Orbán's argument, which so impressed the American side, that Hungary, as a landlocked country, has no alternative to Russian oil, may not be strictly true.

Overall, Hungary and Slovakia together paid Russia $13 billion for oil between the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the end of 2024.