Kyiv expects new Russian pressure from the north, but not an attack on the capital

Ukraine is preparing for a possible new Russian offensive from the north, as military leadership sees a real risk of a large-scale operation in this sector of the front. This was warned by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who described the likely actions of the Russian army and the goals Moscow is pursuing.

According to him, the most realistic scenario is for Russian troops "to try to invade from Bryansk Oblast toward Chernihiv Oblast," with the primary goal of such a move not being the capture of large territories, but "to force Ukraine to stretch its defenses." In this way, Moscow would attempt to weaken Ukrainian positions in the most tense areas along the front line.

No renewed assault on Kyiv, but pressure on the front

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian army is of the opinion that Russia has abandoned its plans "to make a new attempt to capture the capital Kyiv." Instead, according to him, the purpose of a potential offensive from the north will be to force the Defense Forces of Ukraine "to transfer forces and means from the most difficult sections of the front," among which he points to the regions in Donbas.

Thus, Moscow would seek to exhaust the Ukrainian army, forcing it to divide its attention and resources between several directions simultaneously, without taking the risk of a direct new assault on the capital.

Belarus remains outside direct combat engagement

Oleksandr Syrskyi further notes that at this stage he does not expect Belarus "to be directly involved" in a possible new offensive against Ukraine. In his words, Moscow continues to consider various options for actions "from the northern direction," but there are no signs of immediate participation of the Belarusian army in combat operations.

Nevertheless, Kyiv is closely monitoring the situation along the northern border and is noting the potential for the use of Belarusian territory as logistical or political support for Russian plans.

Strengthening the border and signs of exhaustion in Russian forces

Ukraine is already taking concrete steps to strengthen its defense. Defensive positions are being built and reinforced along the border, and intelligence is "monitoring for a possible build-up of Russian forces," emphasizes Syrskyi. He adds that despite continued pressure, "Russian units are showing signs of exhaustion," and in some sectors "the intensity of combat operations has decreased."

In this way, the Ukrainian command is attempting to use the enemy's weakening to stabilize the front and prepare its defense against a potential new wave of attacks.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure and the effect on fuel

In parallel with defensive efforts on land, Ukraine continues "long-range drone strikes" on Russian military and energy infrastructure. According to Syrskyi, these attacks have already "caused a serious crisis with fuel supplies and sales in Russia."

Striking refineries, depots, and energy sector facilities exerts pressure on Russian logistics and supply, which further complicates Moscow's ability to maintain high intensity of combat operations on the front.