Energy Consumption and AI: Trends up to 2040 and Solutions

Energy consumption is expected to show an upward trend until 2040. This fact is directly related to the rapid introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers - two major factors that are enormous consumers of energy. In order to avoid a negative impact on the energy market, investors will have to take specific steps. These steps include concluding long-term contracts with generating capacities or planned expansion of capacities, for example, through new nuclear blocks like units 7 and 8 of Kozloduy NPP. This became clear during the round table "Accelerated Energy Transition: Policies and Innovations for Sustainable Development until 2040", which took place in the capital's "Grand Hotel Millennium". The event was organized by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD).

Delyan Dobrev, chairman of the parliamentary Budget and Finance Committee and member of the Energy Committee, shared specific information on the topic. According to his data, there is a project for a data center, the first phase of which envisages a consumption of 100 megawatts.

"The first phase for a project that is being talked about in Bulgaria is 100 megawatts of consumption, in the next three years they want to increase the capacity to 600-700 megawatts, a single consumer," said Dobrev. He recalled that at the moment the largest energy consumer in the country is "Stomana Pernik" with a total consumption of 90 megawatts. "So in the first phase, the data center will be larger than the largest consumer in the country," he emphasized.

Dobrev expressed concerns that this trend could be negative.

"The practice in other countries shows that the moment the data center arrives, electricity prices rise drastically," he explained. The reason is the possibility for investors to buy up the available electricity on the market. On the other hand, Dobrev noted that these investments can also be positive if investors turn to the Maritsa Basin and sign long-term contracts with companies like "AES" and "ContourGlobal", as well as with TPP "Maritsa East 2". In this way, a long-term perspective for the region would be ensured by loading some of the existing capacities.

"Either these data centers should go to generation and conclude long-term contracts with generation, so as not to affect the market, or they should be combined with a new NPP – units 7 and 8, so that we can respond to this additional new consumption with new generation," said Delyan Dobrev, emphasizing that investors should bear the costs. "I hear that they are looking for prices of 65-70 euros for a 10-year contract. But at this price, the whole industry will want to have contracts".

In conclusion, Dobrev emphasized that energy consumption will continue to grow towards 2040. Therefore, it is necessary to think in the direction of developing new generating capacities or optimizing the use of already existing capacities in the Maritsa Basin.

The forum also brought together the Minister of Energy Zhecho Stankov, the executive director of the Electricity System Operator Angelin Tsachev, as well as the director of the "Energy and Climate" Program at CSD Martin Vladimirov.