19 out of 20 major airlines cut May flights due to aviation fuel crisis

The global aviation industry is heading for its toughest shock since the pandemic. For almost eight weeks now, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been depleting aviation fuel supplies and forcing airlines around the world to cut flights just before the start of the summer tourist season.

According to the analytical company "Cirium", 19 of the world's 20 largest air carriers have reduced their schedules for May, with the total available capacity for the month down by about 3 percentage points compared to the beginning of March. The International Energy Agency warns that aviation fuel reserves in European countries may last for only another six weeks, and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that mass flight cancellations in Europe due to a direct fuel shortage could start "at the end of May".

Collapse in energy supplies

The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, which broke out on February 28, has practically blocked one of the key energy corridors in the world. Under normal conditions, about one-fifth of the world's oil supplies and approximately 40% of Europe's aviation fuel imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the beginning of the war, jet fuel prices have doubled. According to IATA, cited by "Associated Press", between the end of February and the beginning of April, quotations rose from about $99 to $209 per barrel. In the US, the price of aviation fuel has risen from $2.50 per gallon before the conflict to $4.81 per gallon in early April, according to the "Argus Media" index. According to "Aviation Week", the average price of Jet-A for airport fuel complex operators in America in April reached $8.63 per gallon – $1.77 more than in March.

Airlines are looking for rescue solutions

The immediate consequences of the conflict paralyzed major aviation hubs in the Middle East. According to "Cirium", in the first two weeks of the war alone, over 52,000 flights were cancelled, affecting nearly 6 million passengers. The three major carriers from the Persian Gulf – "Emirates", "Qatar Airways" and "Etihad" – have removed over 18,000 flights and 5.4 million seats from their April schedules.

US airlines have found themselves in a particularly vulnerable position, as years ago they largely gave up hedging the risk of rising fuel prices, reports "Reuters". The Chief Executive Officer of "United Airlines" Scott Kirby informed employees that the company will cut flights during off-peak hours and night routes, warning that with continuing high fuel prices this could lead to "an additional $11 billion in annual fuel costs alone". "Delta Air Lines" predicts that its fuel costs will increase by over $2 billion by the end of June.

European air carriers are also in crisis planning mode. "Lufthansa" already has scenarios for temporarily taking up to 40 aircraft out of service if fuel supplies deteriorate, and "Ryanair" has warned that depending on the availability of fuel at individual airports, cancellations of between 5% and 10% of summer flights may occur.

Summer travel is at risk

The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, described what is happening as "the biggest energy crisis in the history of mankind". IATA Director General Willie Walsh supported the assessment, calling on governments to prepare plans for rationing and reallocation of airport slots if the fuel shortage deepens. The European Union is already working on a common action plan in case the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is prolonged.

For passengers, the effect is felt first in the price of the ticket. Experts, cited by CNN, estimate that average fares have risen by about 15% year-on-year. Some carriers, including "Air Canada", have introduced additional fuel surcharges in the range of $50–$60 per reservation. "Cirium" has also revised its forecast for the growth of global air transport in 2026: instead of the expected increase of 4–6%, the company now admits a drop in global volume of up to 3%.

To a large extent, the scale of the impact on passengers will depend on how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Even with a quick recovery of traffic, it will take time to refill the aviation fuel warehouses. In the meantime, airlines are balancing between survival and maintaining trust among customers – a task that seems increasingly difficult in the conditions of a "fuel" war.