With a 25% increase in global oil prices, moderate pressure on the Bulgarian budget is expected.
Main effects:
- Increase in the budget deficit: Potentially up to 3.6% of GDP.
- Increase in operational government expenditures: Energy consumption in public services, transport, and state administration.
- Inflationary pressure: Adds approximately 0.4-1.0 percentage points to inflation.
- Deterioration of the trade balance: The current account deficit may increase by about 0.2-0.4% of GDP.
Protective mechanisms:
- Membership in the European Union.
- Diversification of the energy sector.
- Investments in infrastructure.
The Fiscal Council is investigating the potential effects of the sharp rise in oil prices, provoked by the military escalation in the Middle East.