On Monday, leading global shipping companies warned that "resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz" could take "weeks or even months" – despite the announced "framework peace agreement" between the "US" and "Iran". The primary reasons cited are "uncleared sea mines", "ships trapped in the water area", and "chronic failure" to meet past commitments regarding this strategic waterway.
The industry calls for patience and real guarantees
Danish container giant "Maersk" stated on Monday that it welcomes the reached agreement, but emphasized that it is "premature to talk about its impact on logistics and maritime transport". The company added that "at this stage, no changes are planned" to its operations in the Middle East.
The "Memorandum of Understanding" between the US and Iran is set to be officially signed on "June 19" in "Geneva" (Switzerland). President "Donald Trump" announced that "the strait will be reopened on that very date". However, the shipping association "BIMCO" continues to assess passage through Hormuz as "extremely risky". "The next step is to give shipowners confidence that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted but also safe," stated "Jakob Larsen", Director of "Security" at BIMCO.
Since April, the organization has warned that the "mine threat" is of particular concern and that "clearing operations will likely take several weeks". Without clear clearing of the water area and inspection of the route, most companies refuse to change their plans.
Japanese and European lines wait
The "Japanese Shipowners' Association", which has "38 ships" affiliated with Japanese companies left stranded in the strait, stated that it welcomes the agreement but must "wait for more concrete information". A representative of the association clarified: "We cannot just say: 'Well, okay, go ahead' based solely on news of an agreement".
The company "Nippon Yusen" expressed hope for a "swift restoration of normal operations", while "Mitsui O.S.K. Lines" stated it would resume passages through Hormuz "only after full confirmation of safety".
The German Shipowners' Association "VDR" described its position as "cautious optimism", and "Hapag-Lloyd" expressed hope that "ships will be able to pass through the strait as early as this week". Nevertheless, most European operators are still adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy until risks are clearly assessed.
One tanker "tests" the strait, dozens remain blocked
Despite the general caution, "one LNG tanker" did pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. According to data from "Kpler" and "LSEG", the ship "Disha", chartered by the Indian company "Petronet", crossed the strait with a "Qatari cargo" loaded in "Ras Laffan" between March 1 and 2, and was heading toward the "Dahej" terminal in India.
Estimates suggest about "155 tankers" are still located in the "Persian Gulf" area, and approximately "20,000 sailors" have remained stranded on board about "2,000 immobilized ships". The "Energy Information Administration" of the US forecasts that traffic will not return to "pre-conflict levels" before the "start of 2027".
"Returning to previous volumes is realistically a 2027 story – and that is only if the agreement is observed without incidents and production recovers at the necessary pace," commented "David Gorbenaze", Head of "Global Oil Market" at "ICIS". According to him, any new tension or delay in mine clearance could further extend the period of uncertainty for global energy supplies.