Forecast for the 2026 Elections: Which Parties Will Enter Parliament and What's Ahead?

16.04.2026 | Domestic policy

A sociological survey by "Market Links" predicts five political formations in the new parliament. "Progressive Bulgaria" leads with 38%, and four other parties are vying to pass the 4% barrier. Analysis of the results, voter turnout, and public attitudes.

© BurgasMedia.com — Andrii Maslo

Five political formations enter the new National Assembly, according to a forecast by the sociological agency "Market Links".

According to the survey, funded by BTV and "Market Links", "Progressive Bulgaria" leads with 38%, followed by GERB-SDS with 19.8%, PP-DB with 13.1%, DPS with 7.5% and "Vazrazhdane" with 5.6%.

Close to the 4% barrier are "Velichie", the "Siyanie" coalition, "Moral, Unity, Honor" and the "BSP - United Left" coalition.

"Progressive Bulgaria" is expected to receive 109 mandates, GERB-SDS - 57, PP-DB - 37, DPS - 21 and "Vazrazhdane" - 16.

Sociologists note that Rumen Radev remains with a positive net rating, and voters do not prioritize the formation of a regular cabinet, but a change in the management model.

The expected voter turnout is 54%.

Trust in the National Assembly is at a record low level.