Food prices are likely to keep rising as global demand and farmers' costs grow, says Prof Bozhidar Ivanov, executive director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics (IAE) at the Agricultural Academy. He spoke in Sofia today.
Food prices in Bulgaria rose by about 45% between 2020 and 2025, against about 27% in the EU and the eurozone. Ivanov says prices rise faster in Bulgaria because supply is weaker and production costs more.
He spoke at a round table called "Boosting competitiveness and sustainable growth in farming through dialogue and partnerships", organised by the Bulgarian Farmers' Union. The two-day forum began today and continues tomorrow.
Ivanov also showed how the competitiveness of Bulgarian farming has changed. On a weighted average, crop growing in 2022–2024 was 14% more competitive than in 2007–2009, while livestock farming was 10% less competitive. In the EU, crop growing in 2022–2024 was up 1% on 2015 and livestock farming was down 1%. The professor says European farming is growing more slowly.
His forecasts cover the six main sectors: grain, oilseeds, vegetables, fruit, milk and meat. He looked at each in three scenarios: pessimistic, optimistic and baseline. The baseline assumes the trend from before 2022 carries on, with no big shocks or changes.
Grain has become more competitive over the years and is now at a very high level, Ivanov said. The pessimistic and optimistic scenarios are far apart. In the bad case, competitiveness could fall, but it would still stay high. The baseline is the most likely at about 37%, followed by the optimistic at about 34% and the pessimistic at about 29%.
Sunflower and rapeseed are highly competitive, but the trend points more down than up. The gap between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios is about 25%.
Vegetables are below the world average, and their competitiveness is half the world level. Ivanov says the sector has almost nowhere left to fall. Even the pessimistic scenario would not change its already poor state much.
Fruit depends heavily on the climate. Between 2007 and 2015–2020 the sector recovered somewhat, but like vegetables it remains below average levels. The professor believes the pessimistic scenario would not cause a deeper decline and is the more likely one, at about 30% against about 29% for the optimistic.
Milk is in long-term decline. Until recently its competitiveness was above the world level, but it is now at the world average. Ivanov expects it to stay there with no big change, and even the optimistic scenario would not bring a real improvement. The baseline is the most likely.
Meat started from a very low level in 2007, fell until 2016–2017 and then began to rise. Despite the turnaround, the sector remains far below the world average. Here too the baseline is the most likely.
Ivanov's forecast for consumption per person in Bulgaria up to 2030 shows no big shocks in these sectors, either up or down.