About 1,460,000 people voted in Sunday's first round of the presidential election, according to a rough estimate by political analyst Yanitsa Petkova of the Myara agency. The gap between the top two candidates is small, and a reversal is possible in the 1 November run-off, she believes. She spoke to BNR Burgas.
On 5 October, pollster Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research said in the studio of BNT's "The Day Begins" that about 37% of people on the Central Election Commission's lists would vote on 25 October, and that a run-off was almost certain.
Earlier story: Alpha Research: About 37% will vote on 25 October, run-off almost certain
"People did not vote!" Petkova said. She called this the big news from the first round.
The count is hers, because the Central Election Commission has not yet published official data. She compared it with the last parliamentary election: only the leading party won that many votes.
Polling agencies had expected lower turnout, but not this low, Petkova said. In her words, the drop is big. She believes public energy ran out after the parliamentary vote in April, and that is why people did not vote.
Iliana Yotova and Andrey Girov will face each other in the second round. The gap between them is 2, 3 or 4 points, though a much bigger one had been expected. Petkova said everyone was waiting for a clear result, but the figures show a reversal is possible. Because the gap has shrunk, the challenger is in a stronger position, she added.
In his statements on the evening after the vote, Girov had much more energy, while Yotova was a little more tired. The analyst said this was to be expected.
Petkova links the gap to Yotova's double role in the campaign: she is the sitting president and a candidate for the post. "After all, Ms Yotova had two roles in this campaign. She had to be president and candidate for president." The double role, the analyst believes, strongly affects how she speaks and how she rallies voters.
Petkova said the outcome will depend on how the two tickets run their campaigns before the run-off.