About 40% of voters, or 2.6m to 2.7m people, are expected to vote in Sunday's presidential election, a poll by Alpha Research suggests. Among firmly decided voters, the ticket of Iliana Yotova and Kiril Valchev leads with 41.1%.
Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev are second with 28.3%, about 13 points behind. Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 12.8%.
Three tickets are below 4%: Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov (3.9%), Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova (3.6%), and Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva (3.4%). Some 4.3% answered "other", and 2.6% back no one.
Before the campaign began, 62% of voters had decided. Another 21% made up their minds during it, and 17% will decide in the days left before the vote.
The poll also asked whether the government has responded adequately to the attacks on merchant ships in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea. The largest group, 37%, wants the cabinet to seek more active help from the EU and Nato, while 24% favour complete neutrality. For 19%, the response is fully adequate, and 20% cannot say.
The agency paid for the poll itself and published it on its website. It says it is responsible for the data and how it is interpreted, but not for selective or manipulative use.
The poll surveyed 1,000 adults across the country between 18 and 22 October. Interviewers gathered the data in direct, standardised interviews on tablets in people's homes. The sample was drawn in two stages, with quotas for the main social and demographic groups.